Coal India Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that Coal India Limited (NSE:COALINDIA) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.3% to ₹461 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at ₹307b, although statutory earnings per share came in 20% below what the analysts expected, at ₹10.21 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Coal India

After the latest results, the 21 analysts covering Coal India are now predicting revenues of ₹1.45t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 9.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 2.6% to ₹56.99 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹1.50t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹58.62 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹538 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Coal India analyst has a price target of ₹650 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹180. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Coal India's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Coal India's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.1% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Coal India to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹538, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Coal India. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Coal India analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Coal India is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.