Are Robust Financials Driving The Recent Rally In Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited's (NSE:BPCL) Stock?

Bharat Petroleum's (NSE:BPCL) stock is up by a considerable 22% over the past three months. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Bharat Petroleum's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Bharat Petroleum. Read for free now.

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Bharat Petroleum is:

16% = ₹133b ÷ ₹814b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every ₹1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated ₹0.16 in profit.

View our latest analysis for Bharat Petroleum

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Bharat Petroleum's Earnings Growth And 16% ROE

To begin with, Bharat Petroleum seems to have a respectable ROE. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 14%. Consequently, this likely laid the ground for the impressive net income growth of 21% seen over the past five years by Bharat Petroleum. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Bharat Petroleum's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 30% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is Bharat Petroleum fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Bharat Petroleum Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

The three-year median payout ratio for Bharat Petroleum is 33%, which is moderately low. The company is retaining the remaining 67%. So it seems that Bharat Petroleum is reinvesting efficiently in a way that it sees impressive growth in its earnings (discussed above) and pays a dividend that's well covered.

Additionally, Bharat Petroleum has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 33%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 16%.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that Bharat Petroleum's performance has been quite good. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. As a result, the decent growth in its earnings is not surprising. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.