Shiva Mills Limited's (NSE:SHIVAMILLS) 31% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Despite an already strong run, Shiva Mills Limited (NSE:SHIVAMILLS) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 31% in the last thirty days. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Shiva Mills' P/S ratio of 0.6x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Luxury industry in India is also close to 0.8x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

View our latest analysis for Shiva Mills

What Does Shiva Mills' Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Shiva Mills' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Shiva Mills' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Shiva Mills?

Shiva Mills' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 32% decrease to the company's top line. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 6.8% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 13% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Shiva Mills' P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Shiva Mills' P/S is back within range of the industry median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Shiva Mills' average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Shiva Mills (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.