Kalyan Jewellers India Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in Kalyan Jewellers India Limited (NSE:KALYANKJIL) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.7% to close at ₹503 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues of ₹73b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at ₹2.12, missing estimates by 7.8%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Kalyan Jewellers India

Following the latest results, Kalyan Jewellers India's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of ₹319.5b in 2026. This would be a substantial 36% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 73% to ₹11.15. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹320.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹11.41 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The average price target fell 9.6% to ₹687, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kalyan Jewellers India at ₹810 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹575. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Kalyan Jewellers India's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 28% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 21% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Kalyan Jewellers India to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Kalyan Jewellers India going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Kalyan Jewellers India is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.