Stock Analysis

KEC International Limited's (NSE:KEC) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 23% Below Its Share Price

Published
NSEI:KEC

Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, KEC International fair value estimate is ₹525
  • KEC International's ₹685 share price signals that it might be 31% overvalued
  • Our fair value estimate is 24% lower than KEC International's analyst price target of ₹689

Does the March share price for KEC International Limited (NSE:KEC) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for KEC International

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (₹, Millions) ₹6.63b ₹8.31b ₹9.70b ₹12.8b ₹15.0b ₹17.1b ₹19.1b ₹21.1b ₹23.1b ₹25.0b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x7 Analyst x7 Analyst x7 Analyst x1 Est @ 17.26% Est @ 14.10% Est @ 11.88% Est @ 10.33% Est @ 9.24% Est @ 8.48%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 16% ₹5.7k ₹6.2k ₹6.3k ₹7.1k ₹7.2k ₹7.1k ₹6.9k ₹6.6k ₹6.2k ₹5.8k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹65b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 6.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 16%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹25b× (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (16%– 6.7%) = ₹298b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹298b÷ ( 1 + 16%)10= ₹70b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹135b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹685, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

NSEI:KEC Discounted Cash Flow March 15th 2024

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at KEC International as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.145. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for KEC International

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Construction industry.
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Construction market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Indian market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For KEC International, there are three additional aspects you should explore:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with KEC International (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
  2. Future Earnings: How does KEC's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.