Investors more bullish on Gujarat Apollo Industries (NSE:GUJAPOLLO) this week as stock hikes 20%, despite earnings trending downwards over past five years

When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. Long term Gujarat Apollo Industries Limited (NSE:GUJAPOLLO) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 198% in five years. And in the last month, the share price has gained 38%.

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Gujarat Apollo Industries actually saw its EPS drop 19% per year.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The modest 0.5% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. On the other hand, Gujarat Apollo Industries' revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 15% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

This free interactive report on Gujarat Apollo Industries' balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Gujarat Apollo Industries the TSR over the last 5 years was 212%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Gujarat Apollo Industries has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 52% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 26%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Gujarat Apollo Industries better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Gujarat Apollo Industries (of which 2 are a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.