Is Cummins India Limited's (NSE:CUMMINSIND) Recent Stock Performance Tethered To Its Strong Fundamentals?

Cummins India's (NSE:CUMMINSIND) stock is up by a considerable 11% over the past month. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Cummins India's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Cummins India

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cummins India is:

28% = ₹18b ÷ ₹66b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every ₹1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated ₹0.28 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Cummins India's Earnings Growth And 28% ROE

First thing first, we like that Cummins India has an impressive ROE. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 15% which is quite remarkable. As a result, Cummins India's exceptional 23% net income growth seen over the past five years, doesn't come as a surprise.

As a next step, we compared Cummins India's net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 25% in the same period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Cummins India is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Cummins India Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Cummins India's significant three-year median payout ratio of 56% (where it is retaining only 44% of its income) suggests that the company has been able to achieve a high growth in earnings despite returning most of its income to shareholders.

Additionally, Cummins India has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 49%. As a result, Cummins India's ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 27% for future ROE.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that Cummins India's performance has been quite good. In particular, its high ROE is quite noteworthy and also the probable explanation behind its considerable earnings growth. Yet, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. Which means that the company has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's not too bad. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.