What The Hi-Tech Gears Limited's (NSE:HITECHGEAR) 27% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

The The Hi-Tech Gears Limited (NSE:HITECHGEAR) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 27%. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies in India have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 27x, you may consider Hi-Tech Gears as a stock to avoid entirely with its 49.8x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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For example, consider that Hi-Tech Gears' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Hi-Tech Gears

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Hi-Tech Gears will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Hi-Tech Gears would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 73%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 25% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Hi-Tech Gears' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Hi-Tech Gears' P/E

Hi-Tech Gears' P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Hi-Tech Gears revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Having said that, be aware Hi-Tech Gears is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.