ICL Group Ltd Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Investors in ICL Group Ltd (TLV:ICL) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.0% to close at ₪17.80 following the release of its first-quarter results. ICL Group reported US$1.7b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.08 beat expectations, being 5.1% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ICL Group after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for ICL Group

After the latest results, the consensus from ICL Group's six analysts is for revenues of US$6.97b in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 2.7% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 14% to US$0.32 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$7.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.34 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at ₪20.47, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ICL Group at ₪22.65 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₪18.99. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ICL Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.5% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - ICL Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ICL Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₪20.47, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple ICL Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that ICL Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.