Ryanair Holdings plc Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in Ryanair Holdings plc (ISE:RYA) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.1% to close at €19.32 following the release of its third-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.013, some 88% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €2.7b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Ryanair Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ryanair Holdings' 20 analysts is for revenues of €14.7b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 18% to €2.12. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €14.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.09 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €25.14, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ryanair Holdings at €30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €21.70. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.8% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that Ryanair Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €25.14, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Ryanair Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Ryanair Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.