Ryanair Holdings plc Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Ryanair Holdings plc (ISE:RYA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest second-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.1% to €18.62. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of €5.1b were what the analysts expected, Ryanair Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of €1.28 per share, an impressive 23% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Ryanair Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, Ryanair Holdings' 23 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €13.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 2.1% to €1.37 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €13.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.37 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €20.31, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Ryanair Holdings analyst has a price target of €26.25 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €12.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ryanair Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 23% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ryanair Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €20.31, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Ryanair Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Ryanair Holdings you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.