PT Vale Indonesia Tbk

IDX:INCO Stock Report

Market Cap: Rp38.8t

Vale Indonesia Valuation

Is INCO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of INCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: INCO (IDR3680) is trading above our estimate of fair value (IDR2931.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: INCO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for INCO?

Key metric: As INCO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for INCO. This is calculated by dividing INCO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is INCO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.8x
EarningsUS$91.04m
Market CapUS$2.44b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does INCO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for INCO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average32.2x
NCKL Trimegah Bangun Persada
9x19.8%Rp51.1t
MBMA Merdeka Battery Materials
73.6x56.1%Rp55.1t
HILL Hillcon
28.6x25.8%Rp6.2t
TINS TIMAH
17.6x32.3%Rp9.6t
INCO Vale Indonesia
26.8x28.4%Rp38.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: INCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.8x) compared to the peer average (32.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does INCO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the ID Metals and Mining Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GGRP Gunung Raja Paksi
2.6xn/aUS$161.76m
ISSP Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia
4xn/aUS$125.52m
DKFT Central Omega Resources
4.4xn/aUS$79.20m
No more companies available in this PE range
INCO 26.8xIndustry Avg. 17.6xNo. of Companies5PE020406080100+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: INCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.8x) compared to the ID Metals and Mining industry average (18.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is INCO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

INCO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.8x
Fair PE Ratio25.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: INCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst INCO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentRp3,680.00
Rp4,704.15
+27.8%
15.2%Rp5,734.85Rp3,400.17n/a18
Nov ’25Rp3,800.00
Rp4,709.57
+23.9%
15.5%Rp5,753.15Rp3,411.02n/a18
Oct ’25Rp4,220.00
Rp4,514.10
+7.0%
11.4%Rp5,334.85Rp3,526.17n/a18
Sep ’25Rp3,840.00
Rp4,745.98
+23.6%
12.3%Rp5,698.49Rp3,766.52n/a18
Aug ’25Rp3,830.00
Rp4,745.98
+23.9%
12.3%Rp5,698.49Rp3,766.52n/a18
Jul ’25Rp4,200.00
Rp5,228.25
+24.5%
21.2%Rp9,092.47Rp3,999.38n/a18
Jun ’25Rp4,970.00
Rp5,220.41
+5.0%
20.5%Rp8,963.80Rp4,087.62n/a18
May ’25Rp4,250.00
Rp4,969.21
+16.9%
22.6%Rp9,017.27Rp3,917.74n/a20
Apr ’25Rp4,070.00
Rp4,927.87
+21.1%
22.8%Rp8,798.93Rp3,822.87n/a20
Mar ’25Rp4,100.00
Rp4,796.06
+17.0%
14.7%Rp6,616.02Rp3,865.89n/a16
Feb ’25Rp3,930.00
Rp5,575.92
+41.9%
23.7%Rp8,639.22Rp4,051.61n/a16
Jan ’25Rp4,310.00
Rp6,324.37
+46.7%
21.4%Rp8,945.08Rp4,603.40n/a18
Dec ’24Rp4,400.00
Rp6,499.79
+47.7%
20.2%Rp8,974.71Rp4,912.15n/a18
Nov ’24Rp4,840.00
Rp7,225.07
+49.3%
16.6%Rp9,239.06Rp5,088.64Rp3,800.0017
Oct ’24Rp5,650.00
Rp7,635.45
+35.1%
13.1%Rp8,992.72Rp5,850.68Rp4,220.0016
Sep ’24Rp5,925.00
Rp7,683.20
+29.7%
12.8%Rp8,945.29Rp5,851.78Rp3,840.0017
Aug ’24Rp6,900.00
Rp7,839.48
+13.6%
12.0%Rp8,871.92Rp5,803.78Rp3,830.0016
Jul ’24Rp6,300.00
Rp7,780.89
+23.5%
12.7%Rp8,998.20Rp5,758.85Rp4,200.0018
Jun ’24Rp6,300.00
Rp7,909.18
+25.5%
11.4%Rp8,995.20Rp5,756.93Rp4,970.0018
May ’24Rp6,975.00
Rp7,812.14
+12.0%
12.0%Rp8,931.59Rp5,631.74Rp4,250.0018
Apr ’24Rp6,650.00
Rp7,801.28
+17.3%
13.8%Rp9,047.92Rp5,752.32Rp4,070.0018
Mar ’24Rp6,925.00
Rp8,000.61
+15.5%
12.3%Rp9,205.56Rp5,852.54Rp4,100.0018
Feb ’24Rp7,575.00
Rp7,917.47
+4.5%
12.4%Rp9,104.70Rp5,773.34Rp3,930.0017
Jan ’24Rp7,100.00
Rp8,085.28
+13.9%
13.0%Rp9,909.81Rp5,724.98Rp4,310.0018
Dec ’23Rp7,300.00
Rp7,909.06
+8.3%
13.4%Rp9,797.70Rp5,660.21Rp4,400.0019
Nov ’23Rp6,525.00
Rp8,013.48
+22.8%
13.8%Rp9,972.24Rp5,792.35Rp4,840.0017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Solusi Bangun Indonesia

Rp6.6t

Engages in the production and distribution of cement, ready-mixed concrete, and aggregates in Indonesia and internationally.

SMCB

Rp735.00

7D

-1.3%

1Y

-57.6%

Adaro Minerals Indonesia

Rp53.8t

Engages in metallurgical coal mining business in Indonesia.

ADMR

Rp1,315.00

7D

-1.1%

1Y

10.5%

Barito Pacific

Rp75.0t

Engages in the petrochemical production business.

BRPT

Rp800.00

7D

-9.6%

1Y

-19.6%