PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk

IDX:NCKL Stock Report

Market Cap: Rp52.7t

Trimegah Bangun Persada Valuation

Is NCKL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NCKL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NCKL (IDR835) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR1725.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NCKL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NCKL?

Key metric: As NCKL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NCKL. This is calculated by dividing NCKL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NCKL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.8x
EarningsRp5.99t
Market CapRp52.69t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NCKL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NCKL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average79.8x
MDKA Merdeka Copper Gold
196.3x96.7%Rp50.0t
MBMA Merdeka Battery Materials
79.7x56.1%Rp59.4t
INCO Vale Indonesia
26.7x28.4%Rp38.6t
TINS TIMAH
16.4x32.3%Rp9.0t
NCKL Trimegah Bangun Persada
8.8x20.4%Rp52.7t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NCKL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the peer average (79.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NCKL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the ID Metals and Mining Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GGRP Gunung Raja Paksi
2.6xn/aUS$161.76m
ISSP Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia
4xn/aUS$125.52m
DKFT Central Omega Resources
4.3xn/aUS$76.42m
No more companies available in this PE range
NCKL 8.8xIndustry Avg. 16.4xNo. of Companies5PE020406080100+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NCKL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the ID Metals and Mining industry average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NCKL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NCKL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.8x
Fair PE Ratio22x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NCKL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NCKL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentRp835.00
Rp1,239.29
+48.4%
9.2%Rp1,500.00Rp1,050.00n/a14
Nov ’25Rp885.00
Rp1,239.29
+40.0%
9.2%Rp1,500.00Rp1,050.00n/a14
Oct ’25Rp915.00
Rp1,215.71
+32.9%
8.7%Rp1,500.00Rp1,050.00n/a14
Sep ’25Rp910.00
Rp1,219.29
+34.0%
7.5%Rp1,400.00Rp1,050.00n/a14
Aug ’25Rp935.00
Rp1,231.00
+31.7%
7.8%Rp1,400.00Rp1,050.00n/a10
Jul ’25Rp1,000.00
Rp1,226.00
+22.6%
11.3%Rp1,400.00Rp900.00n/a10
Jun ’25Rp1,005.00
Rp1,205.45
+19.9%
13.7%Rp1,500.00Rp900.00n/a11
May ’25Rp970.00
Rp1,204.17
+24.1%
12.4%Rp1,500.00Rp900.00n/a12
Apr ’25Rp885.00
Rp1,215.00
+37.3%
12.0%Rp1,500.00Rp900.00n/a12
Mar ’25Rp885.00
Rp1,263.00
+42.7%
9.0%Rp1,500.00Rp1,100.00n/a10
Feb ’25Rp900.00
Rp1,263.00
+40.3%
9.0%Rp1,500.00Rp1,100.00n/a10
Jan ’25Rp1,000.00
Rp1,317.50
+31.8%
7.9%Rp1,500.00Rp1,200.00n/a12
Dec ’24Rp1,055.00
Rp1,334.17
+26.5%
8.6%Rp1,500.00Rp1,200.00n/a12
Nov ’24Rp945.00
Rp1,354.55
+43.3%
7.8%Rp1,500.00Rp1,210.00Rp885.0011
Oct ’24Rp1,085.00
Rp1,354.00
+24.8%
8.6%Rp1,500.00Rp1,190.00Rp915.0010
Sep ’24Rp925.00
Rp1,297.78
+40.3%
9.1%Rp1,460.00Rp1,100.00Rp910.009
Aug ’24Rp900.00
Rp1,275.00
+41.7%
8.7%Rp1,450.00Rp1,100.00Rp935.008
Jul ’24Rp935.00
Rp1,366.67
+46.2%
7.2%Rp1,500.00Rp1,200.00Rp1,000.006

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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