Richter Gedeon Vegyészeti Gyár Nyilvánosan Muködo Rt. (BUSE:RICHTER) Shares Could Be 44% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Richter Gedeon Vegyészeti Gyár Nyilvánosan Muködo Rt is Ft16,559 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Richter Gedeon Vegyészeti Gyár Nyilvánosan Muködo Rt's Ft9,200 share price signals that it might be 44% undervalued
• The Ft10,416 analyst price target for RICHTER is 37% less than our estimate of fair value

How far off is Richter Gedeon Vegyészeti Gyár Nyilvánosan Muködo Rt. (BUSE:RICHTER) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Richter Gedeon Vegyészeti Gyár Nyilvánosan Muködo Rt

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = Ft1.4t

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = Ft225b× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (7.8%– 1.5%) = Ft3.6t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= Ft3.6t÷ ( 1 + 7.8%)¹⁰= Ft1.7t

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is Ft3.1t. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of Ft9.2k, the company appears quite good value at a 44% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Richter Gedeon Vegyészeti Gyár Nyilvánosan Muködo Rt as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Richter Gedeon Vegyészeti Gyár Nyilvánosan Muködo Rt

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Richter Gedeon Vegyészeti Gyár Nyilvánosan Muködo Rt, we've compiled three important items you should assess:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Richter Gedeon Vegyészeti Gyár Nyilvánosan Muködo Rt that you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does RICHTER's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the BUSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.