Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings Limited's (HKG:6828) 29% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings Limited (HKG:6828) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 29% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 18% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 11x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

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As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing earnings performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

See our latest analysis for Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 6.8% decrease to the company's bottom line. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 18% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's curious that Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings (1 is concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.