Calculating The Fair Value Of Goal Rise Logistics (China) Holdings Limited (HKG:1529)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Goal Rise Logistics (China) Holdings Limited (HKG:1529) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Goal Rise Logistics (China) Holdings

Step by step through the calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥9.80m	CN¥9.65m	CN¥9.58m	CN¥9.58m	CN¥9.62m	CN¥9.70m	CN¥9.79m	CN¥9.90m	CN¥10.0m	CN¥10.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -2.87%	Est @ -1.56%	Est @ -0.65%	Est @ -0.01%	Est @ 0.44%	Est @ 0.75%	Est @ 0.97%	Est @ 1.12%	Est @ 1.23%	Est @ 1.3%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4%	CN¥9.1	CN¥8.4	CN¥7.7	CN¥7.2	CN¥6.7	CN¥6.3	CN¥5.9	CN¥5.6	CN¥5.3	CN¥5.0

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥67m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥10m× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (7.4%– 1.5%) = CN¥173m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥173m÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)¹⁰= CN¥84m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥151m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$0.2, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Goal Rise Logistics (China) Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.103. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Goal Rise Logistics (China) Holdings, we've compiled three fundamental items you should look at:

1. Risks: Be aware that Goal Rise Logistics (China) Holdings is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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