Future Data Group Limited (HKG:8229) Shares Fly 71% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth

Future Data Group Limited (HKG:8229) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 71% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 29%.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, Future Data Group may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x, since almost half of all companies in the IT industry in Hong Kong have P/S ratios greater than 1.3x and even P/S higher than 4x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.

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See our latest analysis for Future Data Group

How Has Future Data Group Performed Recently?

For instance, Future Data Group's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps the market believes the recent revenue performance isn't good enough to keep up the industry, causing the P/S ratio to suffer. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Future Data Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

Future Data Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 3.5%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 39% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 9.0% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we understand why Future Data Group's P/S is lower than most of its industry peers. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Bottom Line On Future Data Group's P/S

Future Data Group's stock price has surged recently, but its but its P/S still remains modest. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

It's no surprise that Future Data Group maintains its low P/S off the back of its sliding revenue over the medium-term. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Future Data Group (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Future Data Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.