If You Had Bought LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment's (HKG:95) Shares Three Years Ago You Would Be Down 31%

June 02, 2021
  •  Updated
October 01, 2022
Source: Shutterstock

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment Company Limited (HKG:95) shareholders, since the share price is down 31% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 3.9%.

Check out our latest analysis for LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Although the share price is down over three years, LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment actually managed to grow EPS by 46% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 22% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

SEHK:95 Earnings and Revenue Growth June 3rd 2021

It is of course excellent to see how LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment's TSR of was a loss of 27% for the 3 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 31% in the last year, LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment shareholders lost 14%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 4% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment (1 is a bit unpleasant) that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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