China Jinmao Holdings Group (SEHK:817) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 817 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

817 (HK$1.68) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$41.36)

817 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

817 Stock Overview

China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates in real estate and hotel businesses in Mainland China.

Rewards

Trading at 95.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 12.2% per year

Earnings grew by 20.8% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

China Jinmao Holdings Group Competitors

Hopson Development Holdings

SEHK:754

HK$26.3b

CIFI Holdings (Group)

SEHK:884

HK$19.0b

Seazen Group

SEHK:1030

HK$18.3b

Radiance Holdings (Group)

SEHK:9993

HK$16.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for China Jinmao Holdings Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$1.68
52 Week High	HK$3.24
52 Week Low	HK$1.58
Beta	0.48
1 Month Change	-8.20%
3 Month Change	-26.96%
1 Year Change	-29.41%
3 Year Change	-65.64%
5 Year Change	-49.25%
Change since IPO	-22.94%

Recent News & Updates

Apr 11

Does China Jinmao Holdings Group (HKG:817) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...

Shareholder Returns

	817	HK Real Estate	HK Market
7D	0%	0.2%	-0.5%
1Y	-29.4%	-35.2%	-20.6%

Return vs Industry: 817 exceeded the Hong Kong Real Estate industry which returned -37.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 817 underperformed the Hong Kong Market which returned -21.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 817's price volatile compared to industry and market?
817 volatility
817 Average Weekly Movement	5.5%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	5.7%
Market Average Movement	6.5%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	12.6%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: 817 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Hong Kong stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 817's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2004	12,825	Congrui Li	https://www.chinajinmao.cn

China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates in real estate and hotel businesses in Mainland China. It operates in four segments: City and Property Development, Commercial Leasing and Retail Operations, Hotel Operations, and Others. The City and Property Development segment develops city complexes and properties, as well as develops land.

China Jinmao Holdings Group Fundamentals Summary

How do China Jinmao Holdings Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
817 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	HK$21.32b
Earnings (TTM)	HK$5.43b
Revenue (TTM)	HK$104.22b

3.9x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is 817 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
817 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥90.06b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥73.30b
Gross Profit	CN¥16.76b
Other Expenses	CN¥12.07b
Earnings	CN¥4.69b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.37
Gross Margin	18.61%
Net Profit Margin	5.21%
Debt/Equity Ratio	112.2%

How did 817 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 817 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 817?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 817. This is calculated by dividing 817's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 817's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥18.42b

817 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	17.4x
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 817's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

817 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 817 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.7x
754 Hopson Development Holdings	2.7x	n/a	HK$26.3b
884 CIFI Holdings (Group)	2.2x	2.7%	HK$19.0b
1030 Seazen Group	1.8x	-6.8%	HK$18.3b
9993 Radiance Holdings (Group)	4.3x	n/a	HK$16.3b
817 China Jinmao Holdings Group	3.9x	12.2%	HK$21.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 817 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.9x) compared to the peer average (2.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 817's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 817 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.9x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (5.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 817's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

817 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.9x
Fair PE Ratio	5.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 817 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 817 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 817 (HK$1.68) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$41.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 817 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is China Jinmao Holdings Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

12.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 817's forecast earnings growth (12.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: 817's earnings (12.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 817's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 817's revenue (8.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (10% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 817's revenue (8.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 817's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.2%).

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Past Performance

How has China Jinmao Holdings Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

6.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 817 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 817's current net profit margins (5.2%) are lower than last year (6.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 817's earnings have grown by 6.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 817's earnings growth over the past year (20.8%) exceeds its 5-year average (6.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 817 earnings growth over the past year (20.8%) exceeded the Real Estate industry 15.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 817's Return on Equity (7.2%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is China Jinmao Holdings Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 817's short term assets (CN¥205.9B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥201.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: 817's short term assets (CN¥205.9B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥104.0B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 817's net debt to equity ratio (83.2%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: 817's debt to equity ratio has increased from 86.2% to 112.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 817's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.7%).

Interest Coverage: 817 earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is China Jinmao Holdings Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

12.50%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate 817's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate 817's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 817's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 817's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: 817 is not paying a notable dividend for the Hong Kong market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as 817 has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Congrui Li (51 yo)

9.58yrs

Tenure

CN¥11,627,000

Compensation

Mr. Congrui Li has been the Chief Executive Officer of China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited (formerly Franshion Properties (China) Ltd.) since January 16, 2013 and served as its Chairman since April 29, 201...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Congrui's total compensation ($USD1.72M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Hong Kong market ($USD504.87K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Congrui's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 817's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 817's board of directors are considered experienced (5.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: 817 insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/16 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/16 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31