China Jinmao Holdings Group (SEHK:817) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Q: What is the Fair Price of 817 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

817 (HK$1.1) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$1.7)

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 817 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 817 (HK$1.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$1.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 817 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 817?

Key metric: As 817 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 817. This is calculated by dividing 817's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 817's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.2x
Sales	CN¥67.54b
Market Cap	CN¥13.80b

817 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	60.1x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 817's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 817 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.2x
9993 Radiance Holdings (Group)	0.4x	n/a	HK$14.4b
2007 Country Garden Holdings	0.03x	-17.3%	HK$13.4b
754 Hopson Development Holdings	0.4x	n/a	HK$13.0b
1030 Seazen Group	0.1x	-22.6%	HK$14.1b
817 China Jinmao Holdings Group	0.2x	-1.0%	HK$14.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 817 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (0.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 817's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

87 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
1908 C&D International Investment Group	0.2x	3.1%	US$3.55b
1918 Sunac China Holdings	0.2x	-14.2%	US$3.08b
3900 Greentown China Holdings	0.2x	-0.4%	US$3.03b
1030 Seazen Group	0.1x	-22.6%	US$1.81b

87 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 817 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 817's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

817 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.2x
Fair PS Ratio	0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 817 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 817 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$1.10	HK$0.85 -22.3%	29.1%	HK$1.30	HK$0.46	n/a	10
Nov ’25	HK$1.20	HK$0.86 -28.7%	29.0%	HK$1.30	HK$0.46	n/a	10
Oct ’25	HK$1.17	HK$0.80 -31.9%	21.2%	HK$1.10	HK$0.46	n/a	10
Sep ’25	HK$0.71	HK$0.92 +29.9%	69.9%	HK$3.00	HK$0.40	n/a	12
Aug ’25	HK$0.61	HK$0.90 +48.0%	72.9%	HK$3.00	HK$0.40	n/a	12
Jul ’25	HK$0.62	HK$0.90 +45.6%	72.9%	HK$3.00	HK$0.40	n/a	12
Jun ’25	HK$0.69	HK$0.88 +28.0%	74.6%	HK$3.00	HK$0.40	n/a	12
May ’25	HK$0.67	HK$0.88 +31.8%	74.6%	HK$3.00	HK$0.40	n/a	12
Apr ’25	HK$0.56	HK$0.90 +60.4%	72.3%	HK$3.00	HK$0.45	n/a	12
Mar ’25	HK$0.65	HK$1.35 +107.4%	49.6%	HK$3.00	HK$0.60	n/a	12
Feb ’25	HK$0.61	HK$1.42 +133.6%	43.5%	HK$3.00	HK$0.60	n/a	13
Jan ’25	HK$0.75	HK$1.57 +109.3%	33.3%	HK$3.00	HK$1.00	n/a	12
Dec ’24	HK$0.85	HK$1.59 +86.7%	30.4%	HK$3.00	HK$1.00	n/a	13
Nov ’24	HK$0.95	HK$1.65 +73.7%	30.5%	HK$3.00	HK$1.00	HK$1.20	14
Oct ’24	HK$1.01	HK$1.69 +66.9%	29.5%	HK$3.00	HK$1.00	HK$1.17	14
Sep ’24	HK$1.11	HK$1.76 +58.2%	27.4%	HK$3.00	HK$1.20	HK$0.71	14
Aug ’24	HK$1.23	HK$1.98 +61.0%	24.1%	HK$3.00	HK$1.20	HK$0.61	14
Jul ’24	HK$1.15	HK$2.00 +73.7%	22.7%	HK$3.00	HK$1.20	HK$0.62	14
Jun ’24	HK$1.10	HK$2.00 +81.9%	22.7%	HK$3.00	HK$1.20	HK$0.69	14
May ’24	HK$1.46	HK$2.08 +42.5%	23.0%	HK$3.00	HK$1.20	HK$0.67	14
Apr ’24	HK$1.53	HK$2.18 +42.3%	21.3%	HK$3.00	HK$1.20	HK$0.56	13
Mar ’24	HK$1.63	HK$2.47 +51.8%	19.1%	HK$3.40	HK$1.40	HK$0.65	13
Feb ’24	HK$1.83	HK$2.55 +39.1%	21.2%	HK$3.40	HK$1.40	HK$0.61	12
Jan ’24	HK$1.68	HK$2.60 +54.9%	22.4%	HK$3.40	HK$1.30	HK$0.75	12
Dec ’23	HK$1.79	HK$2.51 +40.4%	23.4%	HK$3.40	HK$1.30	HK$0.85	13
Nov ’23	HK$1.08	HK$2.60 +140.4%	23.9%	HK$3.50	HK$1.30	HK$0.95	15

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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