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Times China Holdings (HKG:1233) stock falls 15% in past week as five-year earnings and shareholder returns continue downward trend
Long term investing works well, but it doesn't always work for each individual stock. We don't wish catastrophic capital loss on anyone. Imagine if you held Times China Holdings Limited (HKG:1233) for half a decade as the share price tanked 92%. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 52% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 47% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
View our latest analysis for Times China Holdings
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Times China Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 6.5% each year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 40% per year, over the period. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock. The low P/E ratio of 1.03 further reflects this reticence.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
This free interactive report on Times China Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Times China Holdings the TSR over the last 5 years was -90%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Times China Holdings shareholders are down 52% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 9.1%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 14% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Times China Holdings (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.
Find out whether Times China Holdings is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.View the Free Analysis
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Times China Holdings
Times China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a property developer in the People’s Republic of China.
Good value with adequate balance sheet.