Why Henderson Land Development Company Limited (HKG:12) Could Be Worth Watching

Henderson Land Development Company Limited (HKG:12) saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the SEHK. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Henderson Land Development’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Henderson Land Development

What's the opportunity in Henderson Land Development?

According to my valuation model, the stock is currently overvalued by about 25%, trading at HK$32.10 compared to my intrinsic value of HK$25.64. This means that the opportunity to buy Henderson Land Development at a good price has disappeared! If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Given that Henderson Land Development’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from Henderson Land Development?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Henderson Land Development, it is expected to deliver a relatively unexciting earnings growth of 3.7%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. Growth doesn’t appear to be a main reason for a buy decision for the company, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in 12’s future outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe 12 should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on 12 for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

It can be quite valuable to consider what analysts expect for Henderson Land Development from their most recent forecasts. At Simply Wall St, we have the analysts estimates which you can view by clicking here.

If you are no longer interested in Henderson Land Development, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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