Henderson Land Development Company Limited

SEHK:12 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$121.3b

Henderson Land Development Valuation

Is 12 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 12 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 12 (HK$25.05) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$42.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 12 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 12?

Key metric: As 12 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 12. This is calculated by dividing 12's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 12's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.7x
EarningsHK$6.48b
Market CapHK$121.28b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 12's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 12 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.5x
1109 China Resources Land
5.7x4.6%HK$169.4b
1113 CK Asset Holdings
7.3x1.3%HK$113.6b
688 China Overseas Land & Investment
6.3x5.7%HK$151.0b
960 Longfor Group Holdings
6.8x4.5%HK$77.1b
12 Henderson Land Development
18.7x17.3%HK$121.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 12 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the peer average (6.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 12's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
29 Dynamic Holdings
0.3xn/aUS$238.31m
2768 Jiayuan International Group
1.4x31.6%US$151.18m
3883 China Aoyuan Group
0.06xn/aUS$126.29m
2117 Datang Group Holdings
1.2xn/aUS$87.18m
12 18.7xIndustry Avg. 7.3xNo. of Companies15PE0612182430+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 12 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (7.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 12's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

12 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.7x
Fair PE Ratio16.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 12 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 12 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$25.05
HK$25.70
+2.6%
14.1%HK$34.00HK$19.50n/a14
Dec ’25HK$24.40
HK$25.70
+5.3%
14.1%HK$34.00HK$19.50n/a14
Nov ’25HK$25.25
HK$25.84
+2.3%
14.2%HK$34.00HK$19.50n/a14
Oct ’25HK$24.80
HK$24.68
-0.5%
16.1%HK$34.00HK$16.50n/a14
Sep ’25HK$24.30
HK$24.68
+1.6%
16.1%HK$34.00HK$16.50n/a14
Aug ’25HK$21.90
HK$25.13
+14.7%
17.5%HK$34.00HK$16.50n/a14
Jul ’25HK$20.95
HK$25.26
+20.6%
17.2%HK$34.00HK$16.90n/a14
Jun ’25HK$24.30
HK$25.37
+4.4%
17.1%HK$34.00HK$16.90n/a14
May ’25HK$23.80
HK$25.53
+7.3%
16.2%HK$34.00HK$16.90n/a14
Apr ’25HK$22.30
HK$24.95
+11.9%
16.6%HK$34.00HK$16.90n/a13
Mar ’25HK$22.40
HK$22.86
+2.1%
19.3%HK$34.00HK$16.90n/a13
Feb ’25HK$20.50
HK$23.56
+14.9%
19.1%HK$34.00HK$16.90n/a12
Jan ’25HK$24.05
HK$23.81
-1.0%
21.0%HK$36.00HK$16.90n/a12
Dec ’24HK$21.25
HK$24.25
+14.1%
20.9%HK$36.00HK$16.90HK$24.4013
Nov ’24HK$20.55
HK$24.25
+18.0%
20.9%HK$36.00HK$16.90HK$25.2513
Oct ’24HK$20.65
HK$25.95
+25.7%
18.6%HK$36.00HK$16.90HK$24.8013
Sep ’24HK$21.55
HK$26.82
+24.4%
15.9%HK$36.00HK$18.30HK$24.3013
Aug ’24HK$23.60
HK$29.00
+22.9%
14.4%HK$40.00HK$23.30HK$21.9013
Jul ’24HK$23.30
HK$29.62
+27.1%
13.9%HK$40.00HK$23.30HK$20.9513
Jun ’24HK$23.50
HK$29.92
+27.3%
13.3%HK$40.00HK$23.30HK$24.3013
May ’24HK$27.90
HK$30.15
+8.1%
12.6%HK$40.00HK$23.30HK$23.8013
Apr ’24HK$27.15
HK$30.27
+11.5%
12.1%HK$40.00HK$23.30HK$22.3013
Mar ’24HK$28.40
HK$31.53
+11.0%
20.4%HK$49.00HK$23.50HK$22.4015
Feb ’24HK$29.05
HK$31.27
+7.6%
21.2%HK$49.00HK$23.50HK$20.5015
Jan ’24HK$27.25
HK$30.53
+12.0%
23.4%HK$49.00HK$20.00HK$24.0515
Dec ’23HK$24.60
HK$30.33
+23.3%
23.8%HK$49.00HK$20.00HK$21.2515

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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