Henderson Land Development Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 12 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

12 (HK$23.7) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$42.25)

Is 12 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 12 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 12 (HK$23.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$42.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 12 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 12?

Key metric: As 12 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 12. This is calculated by dividing 12's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 12's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	17.7x
Earnings	HK$6.48b
Market Cap	HK$114.74b

12 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	9.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	38.5x
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 12's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 12 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	6.1x
1109 China Resources Land	5.4x	4.7%	HK$160.8b
688 China Overseas Land & Investment	5.7x	6.0%	HK$134.8b
1113 CK Asset Holdings	7.1x	1.3%	HK$110.9b
960 Longfor Group Holdings	6.1x	4.4%	HK$69.3b
12 Henderson Land Development	17.7x	17.3%	HK$114.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 12 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x) compared to the peer average (6.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 12's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
29 Dynamic Holdings	0.4x	n/a	US$306.00m
2768 Jiayuan International Group	1.4x	31.6%	US$151.18m
3883 China Aoyuan Group	0.05x	n/a	US$105.76m
2117 Datang Group Holdings	1.2x	n/a	US$87.18m

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 12 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (7.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 12's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

12 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.7x
Fair PE Ratio	16.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 12 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 12 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$23.70	HK$25.70 +8.4%	14.1%	HK$34.00	HK$19.50	n/a	14
Dec ’25	HK$24.40	HK$25.70 +5.3%	14.1%	HK$34.00	HK$19.50	n/a	14
Nov ’25	HK$25.25	HK$25.84 +2.3%	14.2%	HK$34.00	HK$19.50	n/a	14
Oct ’25	HK$24.80	HK$24.68 -0.5%	16.1%	HK$34.00	HK$16.50	n/a	14
Sep ’25	HK$24.30	HK$24.68 +1.6%	16.1%	HK$34.00	HK$16.50	n/a	14
Aug ’25	HK$21.90	HK$25.13 +14.7%	17.5%	HK$34.00	HK$16.50	n/a	14
Jul ’25	HK$20.95	HK$25.26 +20.6%	17.2%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	14
Jun ’25	HK$24.30	HK$25.37 +4.4%	17.1%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	14
May ’25	HK$23.80	HK$25.53 +7.3%	16.2%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	14
Apr ’25	HK$22.30	HK$24.95 +11.9%	16.6%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	13
Mar ’25	HK$22.40	HK$22.86 +2.1%	19.3%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	13
Feb ’25	HK$20.50	HK$23.56 +14.9%	19.1%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	12
Jan ’25	HK$24.05	HK$23.81 -1.0%	21.0%	HK$36.00	HK$16.90	n/a	12
Dec ’24	HK$21.25	HK$24.25 +14.1%	20.9%	HK$36.00	HK$16.90	HK$24.40	13
Nov ’24	HK$20.55	HK$24.25 +18.0%	20.9%	HK$36.00	HK$16.90	HK$25.25	13
Oct ’24	HK$20.65	HK$25.95 +25.7%	18.6%	HK$36.00	HK$16.90	HK$24.80	13
Sep ’24	HK$21.55	HK$26.82 +24.4%	15.9%	HK$36.00	HK$18.30	HK$24.30	13
Aug ’24	HK$23.60	HK$29.00 +22.9%	14.4%	HK$40.00	HK$23.30	HK$21.90	13
Jul ’24	HK$23.30	HK$29.62 +27.1%	13.9%	HK$40.00	HK$23.30	HK$20.95	13
Jun ’24	HK$23.50	HK$29.92 +27.3%	13.3%	HK$40.00	HK$23.30	HK$24.30	13
May ’24	HK$27.90	HK$30.15 +8.1%	12.6%	HK$40.00	HK$23.30	HK$23.80	13
Apr ’24	HK$27.15	HK$30.27 +11.5%	12.1%	HK$40.00	HK$23.30	HK$22.30	13
Mar ’24	HK$28.40	HK$31.53 +11.0%	20.4%	HK$49.00	HK$23.50	HK$22.40	15
Feb ’24	HK$29.05	HK$31.27 +7.6%	21.2%	HK$49.00	HK$23.50	HK$20.50	15
Jan ’24	HK$27.25	HK$30.53 +12.0%	23.4%	HK$49.00	HK$20.00	HK$24.05	15
Dec ’23	HK$24.60	HK$30.33 +23.3%	23.8%	HK$49.00	HK$20.00	HK$21.25	15

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/30 04:18
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Henderson Land Development Company Limited is covered by 38 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Andrew Lawrence	Barclays
Kwok Yi Louie	Barclays
C Wong	BNP Paribas Securities (Asia)