Henderson Land Development Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 12 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

12 (HK$25.05) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$42.59)

Is 12 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 12 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 12 (HK$25.05) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$42.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 12 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 12?

Key metric: As 12 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 12. This is calculated by dividing 12's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 12's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	18.7x
Earnings	HK$6.48b
Market Cap	HK$121.28b

12 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	9.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	39.4x
PEG Ratio	1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 12's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 12 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	6.5x
1109 China Resources Land	5.7x	4.6%	HK$169.4b
1113 CK Asset Holdings	7.3x	1.3%	HK$113.6b
688 China Overseas Land & Investment	6.3x	5.7%	HK$151.0b
960 Longfor Group Holdings	6.8x	4.5%	HK$77.1b
12 Henderson Land Development	18.7x	17.3%	HK$121.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 12 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the peer average (6.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 12's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
29 Dynamic Holdings	0.3x	n/a	US$238.31m
2768 Jiayuan International Group	1.4x	31.6%	US$151.18m
3883 China Aoyuan Group	0.06x	n/a	US$126.29m
2117 Datang Group Holdings	1.2x	n/a	US$87.18m

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 12 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 12's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

12 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	18.7x
Fair PE Ratio	16.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 12 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 12 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$25.05	HK$25.70 +2.6%	14.1%	HK$34.00	HK$19.50	n/a	14
Dec ’25	HK$24.40	HK$25.70 +5.3%	14.1%	HK$34.00	HK$19.50	n/a	14
Nov ’25	HK$25.25	HK$25.84 +2.3%	14.2%	HK$34.00	HK$19.50	n/a	14
Oct ’25	HK$24.80	HK$24.68 -0.5%	16.1%	HK$34.00	HK$16.50	n/a	14
Sep ’25	HK$24.30	HK$24.68 +1.6%	16.1%	HK$34.00	HK$16.50	n/a	14
Aug ’25	HK$21.90	HK$25.13 +14.7%	17.5%	HK$34.00	HK$16.50	n/a	14
Jul ’25	HK$20.95	HK$25.26 +20.6%	17.2%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	14
Jun ’25	HK$24.30	HK$25.37 +4.4%	17.1%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	14
May ’25	HK$23.80	HK$25.53 +7.3%	16.2%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	14
Apr ’25	HK$22.30	HK$24.95 +11.9%	16.6%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	13
Mar ’25	HK$22.40	HK$22.86 +2.1%	19.3%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	13
Feb ’25	HK$20.50	HK$23.56 +14.9%	19.1%	HK$34.00	HK$16.90	n/a	12
Jan ’25	HK$24.05	HK$23.81 -1.0%	21.0%	HK$36.00	HK$16.90	n/a	12
Dec ’24	HK$21.25	HK$24.25 +14.1%	20.9%	HK$36.00	HK$16.90	HK$24.40	13
Nov ’24	HK$20.55	HK$24.25 +18.0%	20.9%	HK$36.00	HK$16.90	HK$25.25	13
Oct ’24	HK$20.65	HK$25.95 +25.7%	18.6%	HK$36.00	HK$16.90	HK$24.80	13
Sep ’24	HK$21.55	HK$26.82 +24.4%	15.9%	HK$36.00	HK$18.30	HK$24.30	13
Aug ’24	HK$23.60	HK$29.00 +22.9%	14.4%	HK$40.00	HK$23.30	HK$21.90	13
Jul ’24	HK$23.30	HK$29.62 +27.1%	13.9%	HK$40.00	HK$23.30	HK$20.95	13
Jun ’24	HK$23.50	HK$29.92 +27.3%	13.3%	HK$40.00	HK$23.30	HK$24.30	13
May ’24	HK$27.90	HK$30.15 +8.1%	12.6%	HK$40.00	HK$23.30	HK$23.80	13
Apr ’24	HK$27.15	HK$30.27 +11.5%	12.1%	HK$40.00	HK$23.30	HK$22.30	13
Mar ’24	HK$28.40	HK$31.53 +11.0%	20.4%	HK$49.00	HK$23.50	HK$22.40	15
Feb ’24	HK$29.05	HK$31.27 +7.6%	21.2%	HK$49.00	HK$23.50	HK$20.50	15
Jan ’24	HK$27.25	HK$30.53 +12.0%	23.4%	HK$49.00	HK$20.00	HK$24.05	15
Dec ’23	HK$24.60	HK$30.33 +23.3%	23.8%	HK$49.00	HK$20.00	HK$21.25	15

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.