Why Henderson Land Development Company Limited (HKG:12) Could Be Worth Watching

Henderson Land Development Company Limited (HKG:12) saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the SEHK over the last few months. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s take a look at Henderson Land Development’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Henderson Land Development

Is Henderson Land Development still cheap?

The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 13.01x is currently trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 8.28x, which means if you buy Henderson Land Development today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Henderson Land Development should be trading at this level in the long run, then there should only be a fairly immaterial downside vs other industry peers. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Henderson Land Development’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What does the future of Henderson Land Development look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Henderson Land Development's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 53%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? 12’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at 12? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on 12, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for 12, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Henderson Land Development.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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