Greentown China Holdings Limited

SZSC:3900 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$23.0b

Greentown China Holdings Valuation

Is 3900 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3900 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3900 (HK$9.09) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$8.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3900 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3900?

Key metric: As 3900 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3900. This is calculated by dividing 3900's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3900's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.3x
EarningsCN¥2.62b
Market CapCN¥21.62b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3900's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3900 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average37.7x
123 Yuexiu Property
6.8x9.9%HK$20.6b
1908 C&D International Investment Group
6x11.1%HK$24.9b
754 Hopson Development Holdings
130.1xn/aHK$12.0b
28 Tian An China Investments
7.8xn/aHK$5.6b
3900 Greentown China Holdings
8.3x5.9%HK$23.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3900 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (37.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3900's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
29 Dynamic Holdings
0.4xn/aUS$302.04m
2768 Jiayuan International Group
1.4x31.6%US$151.18m
3883 China Aoyuan Group
0.05xn/aUS$114.97m
2117 Datang Group Holdings
1.2xn/aUS$87.18m
3900 8.3xIndustry Avg. 6.9xNo. of Companies15PE0612182430+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3900 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (6.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3900's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3900 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.3x
Fair PE Ratio9.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3900 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3900 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$9.09
HK$9.76
+7.4%
25.3%HK$13.14HK$5.96n/a9
Dec ’25HK$9.52
HK$9.41
-1.1%
25.9%HK$13.17HK$6.02n/a9
Nov ’25HK$10.66
HK$9.20
-13.7%
22.8%HK$11.87HK$6.10n/a9
Oct ’25HK$9.16
HK$8.34
-9.0%
19.2%HK$11.02HK$6.19n/a9
Sep ’25HK$6.18
HK$7.80
+26.3%
13.2%HK$9.70HK$6.12n/a9
Aug ’25HK$5.69
HK$8.93
+57.0%
18.8%HK$11.27HK$6.37n/a8
Jul ’25HK$6.14
HK$9.21
+50.1%
17.6%HK$11.25HK$6.36n/a8
Jun ’25HK$7.63
HK$9.33
+22.3%
16.7%HK$11.30HK$6.38n/a8
May ’25HK$6.91
HK$9.18
+32.9%
15.3%HK$11.00HK$6.40n/a8
Apr ’25HK$6.24
HK$9.61
+54.0%
9.7%HK$10.98HK$8.08n/a8
Mar ’25HK$6.50
HK$10.31
+58.6%
10.4%HK$12.16HK$8.66n/a8
Feb ’25HK$5.89
HK$10.83
+83.9%
7.2%HK$12.16HK$9.75n/a8
Jan ’25HK$7.95
HK$11.26
+41.6%
11.1%HK$13.59HK$9.77n/a8
Dec ’24HK$8.26
HK$11.80
+42.8%
8.5%HK$13.62HK$9.96HK$9.528
Nov ’24HK$7.65
HK$11.79
+54.1%
9.4%HK$13.47HK$9.73HK$10.668
Oct ’24HK$8.13
HK$12.07
+48.4%
8.8%HK$13.57HK$9.80HK$9.168
Sep ’24HK$9.32
HK$12.07
+29.5%
8.8%HK$13.57HK$9.80HK$6.188
Aug ’24HK$8.81
HK$14.50
+64.6%
9.8%HK$16.13HK$11.97HK$5.698
Jul ’24HK$7.85
HK$14.37
+83.1%
7.8%HK$15.57HK$12.16HK$6.148
Jun ’24HK$7.38
HK$14.37
+94.8%
7.8%HK$15.57HK$12.16HK$7.638
May ’24HK$9.40
HK$14.73
+56.6%
7.9%HK$16.00HK$12.50HK$6.918
Apr ’24HK$10.18
HK$14.73
+44.6%
7.9%HK$16.00HK$12.50HK$6.248
Mar ’24HK$11.46
HK$16.17
+41.1%
21.7%HK$20.93HK$8.37HK$6.508
Feb ’24HK$11.96
HK$16.88
+41.1%
20.5%HK$20.92HK$8.58HK$5.899
Jan ’24HK$11.40
HK$16.69
+46.4%
22.9%HK$21.63HK$8.25HK$7.958
Dec ’23HK$12.78
HK$16.61
+30.0%
22.2%HK$21.11HK$8.06HK$8.268

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 05:56
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Greentown China Holdings Limited is covered by 39 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Alvin WongBarclays
Wee Liat LeeBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Andy SoBOCI Research Ltd.