How does 3900's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

3900 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (34.6x).

How does 3900's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

3900 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (7.1x).

What is 3900's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3900 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.9x).

What is the Fair Price of 3900 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

3900 (HK$9.15) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$80.81)

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

3900 Stock Overview

An investment holding company, engages in the property development and related business in China. More details

3900 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	3/6

Rewards

Trading at 88.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 4.81% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Profit margins (1.8%) are lower than last year (2.9%)

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

+ 1 more risk

My Notes

Capture your thoughts, links and company narrative

Greentown China Holdings Limited Competitors

Yuexiu Property

SEHK:123

HK$20.0b

C&D International Investment Group

SEHK:1908

HK$25.3b

Hopson Development Holdings

SEHK:754

HK$10.7b

Tian An China Investments

SEHK:28

HK$6.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Greentown China Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$9.15
52 Week High	HK$11.72
52 Week Low	HK$4.94
Beta	0.63
1 Month Change	0.66%
3 Month Change	-3.58%
1 Year Change	59.97%
3 Year Change	-30.37%
5 Year Change	-9.94%
Change since IPO	41.64%

Recent updates

Shareholder Returns

	3900	HK Real Estate	HK Market
7D	4.3%	3.4%	2.6%
1Y	60.0%	2.0%	26.2%

Return vs Industry: 3900 exceeded the Hong Kong Real Estate industry which returned 4.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 3900 exceeded the Hong Kong Market which returned 28% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 3900's price volatile compared to industry and market?
3900 volatility
3900 Average Weekly Movement	6.1%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	6.1%
Market Average Movement	6.5%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	13.9%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.0%

Stable Share Price: 3900 has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the Hong Kong market.

Volatility Over Time: 3900's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1995	9,158	Jiafeng Guo	www.greentownchina.com

Greentown China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and related business in China. It operates through Property Development, Hotel Operations, Property Investment, Project Management, and Other segments. The company develops and sells residential properties.

Greentown China Holdings Limited Fundamentals Summary

How do Greentown China Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
3900 fundamental statistics
Market cap	HK$23.19b
Earnings (TTM)	HK$2.80b
Revenue (TTM)	HK$153.86b

8.3x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is 3900 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
3900 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥143.97b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥127.71b
Gross Profit	CN¥16.26b
Other Expenses	CN¥13.64b
Earnings	CN¥2.62b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2024

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.03
Gross Margin	11.29%
Net Profit Margin	1.82%
Debt/Equity Ratio	136.2%

How did 3900 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.0%

Current Dividend Yield

42%

Payout Ratio

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/01/21 09:44
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/21 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Greentown China Holdings Limited is covered by 40 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Alvin Wong	Barclays
Wee Liat Lee	BNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Andy So	BOCI Research Ltd.

3900 Stock Overview

Rewards

Risk Analysis

Greentown China Holdings Limited Competitors

SEHK:123

HK$20.0b

SEHK:1908

HK$25.3b

SEHK:754

HK$10.7b

SEHK:28

HK$6.7b

Price History & Performance

Recent News & Updates

Greentown China Holdings Limited Announces Board Changes

Executive Director recently sold HK$1.1m worth of stock

Executive Director recently sold HK$3.2m worth of stock

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15%

New minor risk - Share price stability

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.81 (vs CN¥0.99 in 1H 2023)

Recent updates

Greentown China Holdings Limited Announces Board Changes

Executive Director recently sold HK$1.1m worth of stock

Executive Director recently sold HK$3.2m worth of stock

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15%

New minor risk - Share price stability

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.81 (vs CN¥0.99 in 1H 2023)

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23%

Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise

Now 22% overvalued

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.81 (vs CN¥0.99 in 1H 2023)

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Greentown China Holdings Limited to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 23, 2024

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%

Upcoming dividend of CN¥0.43 per share

Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19%

Now 24% overvalued after recent price rise

New major risk - Financial position

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 38%

Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop

Greentown China Holdings Limited Announces Management Changes

Dividend of CN¥0.43 announced

Greentown China Holdings Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 14, 2024

Full year 2023 earnings released

Greentown China Holdings Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 22, 2024

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15%

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17%

Now 24% undervalued after recent price drop

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.99 (vs CN¥0.67 in 1H 2022)

Greentown China Holdings Limited to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Aug 25, 2023

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%

Upcoming dividend of CN¥0.50 per share at 6.4% yield

Greentown China Holdings Limited Recommends Final Dividend for the Year Ended December 31, 2022, Expects to Pay Before 31 July 2023

Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: CN¥1.03 (vs CN¥1.31 in FY 2021)

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Less than half of directors are independent

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.67 (vs CN¥0.71 in 1H 2021)

Greentown China Holdings Limited to Report First Half, 2022 Results on Aug 25, 2022

Key Executive recently sold HK$1.9m worth of stock

Greentown China Holdings Limited Approves Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2021, Payable on 29 July 2022

Upcoming dividend of CN¥0.46 per share

Greentown China Holdings Limited Announces Board Changes

Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS: CN¥1.31 (vs CN¥1.05 in FY 2020)

Less than half of directors are independent

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Alternate Director recently bought HK$799k worth of stock

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

First half 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.71 (vs CN¥0.65 in 1H 2020)

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Alternate Director recently sold HK$213k worth of stock

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Alternate Director recently sold HK$342k worth of stock

Alternate Director recently sold HK$371k worth of stock

Investor sentiment improved over the past week