An Intrinsic Calculation For China Medical System Holdings Limited (HKG:867) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued
Does the February share price for China Medical System Holdings Limited (HKG:867) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for China Medical System Holdings
Crunching The Numbers
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)||CN¥3.37b||CN¥3.32b||CN¥3.31b||CN¥3.32b||CN¥3.34b||CN¥3.37b||CN¥3.41b||CN¥3.46b||CN¥3.51b||CN¥3.57b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x2||Analyst x2||Est @ -0.41%||Est @ 0.24%||Est @ 0.69%||Est @ 1.00%||Est @ 1.22%||Est @ 1.38%||Est @ 1.49%||Est @ 1.56%|
|Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3%||CN¥3.1k||CN¥2.9k||CN¥2.7k||CN¥2.5k||CN¥2.3k||CN¥2.2k||CN¥2.1k||CN¥2.0k||CN¥1.9k||CN¥1.8k|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥23b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.3%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥3.6b× (1 + 1.7%) ÷ (7.3%– 1.7%) = CN¥65b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥65b÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)10= CN¥32b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥56b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$13.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 47% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at China Medical System Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for China Medical System Holdings
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Pharmaceuticals market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 4 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For China Medical System Holdings, there are three relevant items you should further examine:
- Financial Health: Does 867 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does 867's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
China Medical System Holdings
China Medical System Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, sells, markets, and promotes pharmaceutical products in the People’s Republic of China.
Flawless balance sheet, undervalued and pays a dividend.