China Medical System Holdings Limited

SEHK:867 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$18.6b

China Medical System Holdings Valuation

Is 867 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 867 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 867 (HK$7.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$43.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 867 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 867?

Key metric: As 867 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 867. This is calculated by dividing 867's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 867's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.4x
EarningsCN¥1.39b
Market CapCN¥17.29b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 867's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 867 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8x
512 Grand Pharmaceutical Group
6.5x2.3%HK$16.0b
3933 United Laboratories International Holdings
5.9x3.9%HK$18.3b
570 China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings
11.5xn/aHK$11.5b
2005 SSY Group
8.3x5.8%HK$11.6b
867 China Medical System Holdings
12.4x21.4%HK$18.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 867 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x) compared to the peer average (8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 867's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Pharmaceuticals Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
867 12.4xIndustry Avg. 8.4xNo. of Companies6PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 867 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x) compared to the Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals industry average (8.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 867's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

867 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.4x
Fair PE Ratio14.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 867 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 867 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$7.65
HK$10.87
+42.1%
11.4%HK$13.84HK$9.43n/a9
Nov ’25HK$7.88
HK$11.01
+39.8%
11.3%HK$14.00HK$9.54n/a9
Oct ’25HK$8.95
HK$11.01
+23.1%
11.3%HK$14.00HK$9.54n/a9
Sep ’25HK$7.12
HK$10.99
+54.3%
11.9%HK$14.16HK$9.50n/a9
Aug ’25HK$6.49
HK$10.71
+64.9%
14.0%HK$12.89HK$7.70n/a9
Jul ’25HK$6.62
HK$10.85
+63.8%
13.0%HK$12.91HK$8.44n/a8
Jun ’25HK$6.61
HK$10.91
+65.0%
13.1%HK$12.99HK$8.49n/a8
May ’25HK$7.01
HK$10.90
+55.5%
13.1%HK$12.98HK$8.48n/a8
Apr ’25HK$8.22
HK$17.14
+108.5%
11.5%HK$19.15HK$13.00n/a8
Mar ’25HK$12.74
HK$17.94
+40.9%
6.8%HK$19.28HK$15.03n/a8
Feb ’25HK$11.28
HK$18.18
+61.2%
8.3%HK$20.66HK$15.06n/a8
Jan ’25HK$13.84
HK$18.22
+31.6%
8.7%HK$20.83HK$15.18n/a8
Dec ’24HK$15.00
HK$18.09
+20.6%
8.3%HK$20.64HK$15.38n/a8
Nov ’24HK$12.52
HK$17.70
+41.4%
8.7%HK$20.33HK$15.15HK$7.887
Oct ’24HK$11.86
HK$17.45
+47.1%
8.2%HK$20.29HK$15.12HK$8.957
Sep ’24HK$11.32
HK$17.13
+51.3%
9.8%HK$20.40HK$14.50HK$7.128
Aug ’24HK$13.20
HK$16.86
+27.7%
10.2%HK$19.98HK$14.00HK$6.498
Jul ’24HK$12.76
HK$16.61
+30.2%
10.5%HK$19.14HK$13.39HK$6.628
Jun ’24HK$11.24
HK$16.46
+46.4%
9.8%HK$19.33HK$13.53HK$6.618
May ’24HK$13.00
HK$16.86
+29.7%
10.2%HK$20.07HK$14.04HK$7.018
Apr ’24HK$12.40
HK$16.16
+30.4%
15.2%HK$20.01HK$10.96HK$8.229
Mar ’24HK$12.70
HK$16.75
+31.9%
24.5%HK$26.62HK$10.98HK$12.749
Feb ’24HK$13.80
HK$17.15
+24.3%
24.1%HK$27.02HK$11.14HK$11.289
Jan ’24HK$12.28
HK$16.02
+30.5%
26.3%HK$25.99HK$10.72HK$13.849
Dec ’23HK$11.34
HK$15.60
+37.6%
25.3%HK$24.73HK$10.49HK$15.009
Nov ’23HK$9.25
HK$15.48
+67.4%
25.3%HK$24.54HK$10.41HK$12.529

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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