Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Limited

SEHK:2096 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$16.9b

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Valuation

Is 2096 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2096 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2096 (HK$6.78) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$32.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2096 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2096?

Key metric: As 2096 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 2096. This is calculated by dividing 2096's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 2096's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.5x
SalesCN¥6.34b
Market CapCN¥15.71b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 2096's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 2096 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.7x
512 Grand Pharmaceutical Group
1.5x6.2%HK$15.6b
3933 United Laboratories International Holdings
1.2x6.1%HK$18.5b
867 China Medical System Holdings
2.5x14.7%HK$18.5b
2005 SSY Group
1.7x9.7%HK$11.3b
2096 Simcere Pharmaceutical Group
2.5x12.1%HK$16.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 2096 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x) compared to the peer average (1.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 2096's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Pharmaceuticals Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
3320 China Resources Pharmaceutical Group
0.1x8.0%US$4.30b
897 Wai Yuen Tong Medicine Holdings
0.3xn/aUS$30.07m
8329 Shenzhen Neptunus Interlong Bio-technique
0.2xn/aUS$29.97m
1312 Kontafarma China Holdings
0.2xn/aUS$22.26m
No more companies available in this PS range
2096 2.5xIndustry Avg. 1.5xNo. of Companies7PS01.22.43.64.86+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 2096 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals industry average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2096's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2096 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.5x
Fair PS Ratio3.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 2096 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2096 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$6.78
HK$8.39
+23.7%
9.7%HK$9.71HK$7.28n/a6
Nov ’25HK$6.95
HK$8.53
+22.7%
9.7%HK$9.87HK$7.40n/a6
Oct ’25HK$6.84
HK$8.36
+22.3%
10.4%HK$9.90HK$7.43n/a6
Sep ’25HK$5.91
HK$8.39
+42.0%
11.1%HK$10.11HK$7.42n/a6
Aug ’25HK$5.29
HK$8.60
+62.6%
8.7%HK$9.94HK$7.62n/a6
Jul ’25HK$5.73
HK$8.64
+50.7%
8.6%HK$10.00HK$7.67n/a7
Jun ’25HK$5.86
HK$8.64
+47.4%
8.6%HK$10.00HK$7.67n/a7
May ’25HK$5.40
HK$8.64
+59.9%
8.6%HK$10.00HK$7.67n/a7
Apr ’25HK$5.31
HK$8.41
+58.3%
6.3%HK$9.20HK$7.67n/a6
Mar ’25HK$5.50
HK$10.36
+88.4%
14.3%HK$13.09HK$8.11n/a7
Feb ’25HK$5.25
HK$10.57
+101.4%
14.3%HK$13.17HK$8.16n/a7
Jan ’25HK$6.73
HK$10.76
+59.9%
13.3%HK$13.15HK$8.14n/a7
Dec ’24HK$7.33
HK$10.64
+45.1%
12.9%HK$12.97HK$8.17n/a7
Nov ’24HK$6.87
HK$10.63
+54.7%
13.1%HK$12.89HK$8.12HK$6.957
Oct ’24HK$6.40
HK$10.62
+66.0%
14.1%HK$12.88HK$8.11HK$6.846
Sep ’24HK$6.11
HK$10.67
+74.7%
14.1%HK$12.97HK$8.17HK$5.916
Aug ’24HK$7.51
HK$13.58
+80.8%
19.2%HK$18.96HK$11.44HK$5.296
Jul ’24HK$7.76
HK$13.69
+76.4%
18.6%HK$18.95HK$11.43HK$5.736
Jun ’24HK$7.53
HK$13.94
+85.1%
18.7%HK$19.36HK$11.68HK$5.866
May ’24HK$9.25
HK$14.41
+55.8%
18.4%HK$19.85HK$11.98HK$5.406
Apr ’24HK$8.25
HK$15.32
+85.7%
22.6%HK$21.14HK$12.08HK$5.314
Mar ’24HK$10.24
HK$14.64
+43.0%
22.7%HK$21.06HK$12.03HK$5.505
Feb ’24HK$11.48
HK$14.43
+25.7%
22.2%HK$21.38HK$12.28HK$5.256
Jan ’24HK$11.62
HK$12.44
+7.0%
4.8%HK$13.57HK$11.92HK$6.736
Dec ’23HK$9.60
HK$12.44
+29.5%
4.8%HK$13.57HK$11.92HK$7.336
Nov ’23HK$9.45
HK$12.44
+31.6%
4.8%HK$13.57HK$11.92HK$6.876

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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