Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:1643) Stock Catapults 25% Though Its Price And Business Still Lag The Market

Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:1643) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 25% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 19% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, Modern Chinese Medicine Group may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.5x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios greater than 10x and even P/E's higher than 19x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

For example, consider that Modern Chinese Medicine Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader market in the near future. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Modern Chinese Medicine Group

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Modern Chinese Medicine Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

Modern Chinese Medicine Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 44%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 42% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's understandable that Modern Chinese Medicine Group's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Bottom Line On Modern Chinese Medicine Group's P/E

Even after such a strong price move, Modern Chinese Medicine Group's P/E still trails the rest of the market significantly. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

As we suspected, our examination of Modern Chinese Medicine Group revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term are contributing to its low P/E, given the market is set to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Modern Chinese Medicine Group (1 is significant!) that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.