We're Hopeful That Ocumension Therapeutics (HKG:1477) Will Use Its Cash Wisely

We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. But while the successes are well known, investors should not ignore the very many unprofitable companies that simply burn through all their cash and collapse.

So, the natural question for Ocumension Therapeutics (HKG:1477) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. For the purposes of this article, cash burn is the annual rate at which an unprofitable company spends cash to fund its growth; its negative free cash flow. First, we'll determine its cash runway by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves.

See our latest analysis for Ocumension Therapeutics

When Might Ocumension Therapeutics Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. In December 2022, Ocumension Therapeutics had CN¥1.3b in cash, and was debt-free. Importantly, its cash burn was CN¥511m over the trailing twelve months. So it had a cash runway of about 2.6 years from December 2022. Importantly, analysts think that Ocumension Therapeutics will reach cashflow breakeven in 3 years. So there's a very good chance it won't need more cash, when you consider the burn rate will be reducing in that period. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

How Well Is Ocumension Therapeutics Growing?

It was fairly positive to see that Ocumension Therapeutics reduced its cash burn by 41% during the last year. But the operating revenue growth of 183% was even better. We think it is growing rather well, upon reflection. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Easily Can Ocumension Therapeutics Raise Cash?

We are certainly impressed with the progress Ocumension Therapeutics has made over the last year, but it is also worth considering how costly it would be if it wanted to raise more cash to fund faster growth. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

Since it has a market capitalisation of CN¥5.5b, Ocumension Therapeutics' CN¥511m in cash burn equates to about 9.2% of its market value. That's a low proportion, so we figure the company would be able to raise more cash to fund growth, with a little dilution, or even to simply borrow some money.

So, Should We Worry About Ocumension Therapeutics' Cash Burn?

It may already be apparent to you that we're relatively comfortable with the way Ocumension Therapeutics is burning through its cash. In particular, we think its revenue growth stands out as evidence that the company is well on top of its spending. Its cash burn reduction wasn't quite as good, but was still rather encouraging! Shareholders can take heart from the fact that analysts are forecasting it will reach breakeven. Looking at all the measures in this article, together, we're not worried about its rate of cash burn; the company seems well on top of its medium-term spending needs. Its important for readers to be cognizant of the risks that can affect the company's operations, and we've picked out 1 warning sign for Ocumension Therapeutics that investors should know when investing in the stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.