Some Analysts Just Cut Their Ocumension Therapeutics (HKG:1477) Estimates

Today is shaping up negative for Ocumension Therapeutics (HKG:1477) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Ocumension Therapeutics' four analysts is for revenues of CN¥313m in 2023, which would reflect a substantial 51% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to hold steady at around CN¥0.62 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥431m and losses of CN¥0.59 per share in 2023. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

See our latest analysis for Ocumension Therapeutics

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Ocumension Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 51% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 89% p.a. growth over the last three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Ocumension Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Ocumension Therapeutics after today.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Ocumension Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.