Optimistic Investors Push Litian Pictures Holdings Limited (HKG:9958) Shares Up 73% But Growth Is Lacking

Litian Pictures Holdings Limited (HKG:9958) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 73% gain in the last month alone. The last month tops off a massive increase of 242% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, given around half the companies in Hong Kong's Entertainment industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.7x, you may consider Litian Pictures Holdings as a stock to avoid entirely with its 11.6x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for Litian Pictures Holdings

What Does Litian Pictures Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Litian Pictures Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Litian Pictures Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Litian Pictures Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 50% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 82% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 46% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Litian Pictures Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

The strong share price surge has lead to Litian Pictures Holdings' P/S soaring as well. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Litian Pictures Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Litian Pictures Holdings (2 make us uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.