Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited Just Missed EPS By 11%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (HKG:914) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.3% to HK$16.80 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥1.97 unfortunately missed expectations by 11%, although it was encouraging to see revenues of CN¥141b exceed expectations by 9.8%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Anhui Conch Cement

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from twelve analysts covering Anhui Conch Cement is for revenues of CN¥137.9b in 2024. This implies a discernible 2.2% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be CN¥2.00, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥130.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.13 in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Anhui Conch Cement after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

The analysts also cut Anhui Conch Cement's price target 5.6% to HK$22.40, implying that lower forecast earnings are expected to have a more negative impact than can be offset by the increase in revenue. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Anhui Conch Cement analyst has a price target of HK$28.99 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$14.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Anhui Conch Cement's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 2.2% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 1.5% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Anhui Conch Cement to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Anhui Conch Cement's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Anhui Conch Cement going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Anhui Conch Cement you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.