CMOC Group Limited (HKG:3993) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

It's been a good week for CMOC Group Limited (HKG:3993) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.2% to HK$7.42. Revenues were CN¥46b, and CMOC Group was a dismal 15% short of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for CMOC Group

Following the latest results, CMOC Group's 18 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥207.2b in 2024. This would be a solid 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 6.3% to CN¥0.50. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥206.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.49 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of HK$8.37, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic CMOC Group analyst has a price target of HK$9.39 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$6.99. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that CMOC Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 25% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while CMOC Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for CMOC Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.