China BlueChemical Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's shaping up to be a tough period for China BlueChemical Ltd. (HKG:3983), which a week ago released some disappointing full-year results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 4.2% short of analyst estimates at CN¥14b, and statutory earnings of CN¥0.36 per share missed forecasts by 8.3%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for China BlueChemical

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from China BlueChemical's twin analysts is for revenues of CN¥15.4b in 2023, which would reflect an okay 7.5% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be CN¥0.36, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥15.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.36 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$2.89, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of China BlueChemical'shistorical trends, as the 7.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 is roughly in line with the 7.4% annual revenue growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 1.9% per year. So although China BlueChemical is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for China BlueChemical going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for China BlueChemical you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.