Loading...

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)

SEHK:2689
Snowflake Description

Undervalued with excellent balance sheet and pays a dividend.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
2689
SEHK
HK$37B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. HK
  3. Materials
Company description

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging paper, recycled printing and writing paper, and specialty paper products in the People’s Republic of China. The last earnings update was 30 days ago. More info.


Add to Portfolio Compare Print
2689 Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
2%
SEHK:2689
-0.6%
HK Forestry
0.5%
HK Market
1 Year Returns
-33.6%
SEHK:2689
-29.3%
HK Forestry
-6.1%
HK Market
2689 Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) (2689) 2% 4.6% 1.4% -33.6% 32.5% 49.5%
HK Forestry -0.6% -0.9% -1.1% -29.3% 9.1% 33.2%
HK Market 0.5% 1.1% 11.2% -6.1% 25.9% 19.4%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • 2689 underperformed the Forestry industry which returned -29.3% over the past year.
  • 2689 underperformed the Market in Hong Kong which returned -6.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
2689
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings).

SEHK:2689 Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 17 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 14.5%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year HK Government Bond Rate 2%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for SEHK:2689
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year HK Govt Bond Rate 2%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6.7%
Forestry Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.29
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 1.287 (1 + (1- 25%) (105.35%))
1.874
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.87
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2% + (1.874 * 6.65%)
14.47%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for SEHK:2689 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

SEHK:2689 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (CNY, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 14.47%)
2019 1,639.50 Analyst x2 1,432.31
2020 5,297.50 Analyst x2 4,043.19
2021 5,960.12 Analyst x3 3,974.07
2022 6,487.39 Est @ 8.85% 3,779.00
2023 6,928.12 Est @ 6.79% 3,525.73
2024 7,299.21 Est @ 5.36% 3,245.16
2025 7,616.76 Est @ 4.35% 2,958.40
2026 7,894.48 Est @ 3.65% 2,678.78
2027 8,143.41 Est @ 3.15% 2,414.05
2028 8,372.09 Est @ 2.81% 2,168.21
Present value of next 10 years cash flows CN¥30,218.92
SEHK:2689 DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2028 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= CN¥8,372.09 × (1 + 2%) ÷ (14.47% – 2%)
CN¥68,525.81
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= CN¥68,525.81 ÷ (1 + 14.47%)10
CN¥17,746.87
SEHK:2689 Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= CN¥30,218.92 + CN¥17,746.87
CN¥47,965.80
Equity Value per Share
(CNY)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= CN¥47,965.80 / 4,692.22
CN¥10.22
SEHK:2689 Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate CNY/HKD
(Reporting currency to currency of SEHK:2689)
1.169
Value per Share
(HKD)
= Value per Share in CNY x Exchange Rate (CNY/HKD)
= CN¥10.22 x 1.169
HK$11.96
Value per share (HKD) From above. HK$11.96
Current discount Discount to share price of HK$7.79
= -1 x (HK$7.79 - HK$11.96) / HK$11.96
34.8%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) is available for.
Intrinsic value
35%
Share price is HK$7.79 vs Future cash flow value of HK$11.96
Current Discount Checks
For Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
SEHK:2689 PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2018-12-31) in CNY CN¥1.24
SEHK:2689 Share Price ** SEHK (2019-04-18) in HKD HK$7.79
SEHK:2689 Share Price converted to CNY reporting currency Exchange rate (HKD/ CNY) 0.855 CN¥6.66
Hong Kong Forestry Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 5 Publicly-Listed Forestry Companies 19.83x
Hong Kong Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 1,474 Publicly-Listed Companies 12x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings).

SEHK:2689 PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= SEHK:2689 Share Price ÷ EPS (both in CNY)

= 6.66 ÷ 1.24

5.39x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) is good value based on earnings compared to the HK Forestry industry average.
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) is good value based on earnings compared to the Hong Kong market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
SEHK:2689 PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 5.39x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 17 Analysts
6.7%per year
Asia Forestry Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 9 Publicly-Listed Forestry Companies 0.62x
Hong Kong Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 462 Publicly-Listed Companies 0.86x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

SEHK:2689 PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 5.39x ÷ 6.7%

0.81x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) is good value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s assets?
Raw Data
SEHK:2689 PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2018-12-31) in CNY CN¥7.78
SEHK:2689 Share Price * SEHK (2019-04-18) in HKD HK$7.79
SEHK:2689 Share Price converted to CNY reporting currency Exchange rate (HKD/ CNY) 0.855 CN¥6.66
Hong Kong Forestry Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 11 Publicly-Listed Forestry Companies 0.89x
Hong Kong Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 2,149 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.03x
SEHK:2689 PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= SEHK:2689 Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in CNY)

= 6.66 ÷ 7.78

0.86x

* Primary Listing of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings).

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) is good value based on assets compared to the HK Forestry industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Forestry industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Forestry industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 17 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
6.7%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s earnings growth is positive but not above the Hong Kong market average.
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s revenue growth is positive but not above the Hong Kong market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
SEHK:2689 Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
SEHK:2689 Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 17 Analysts 6.7%
SEHK:2689 Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 17 Analysts 7.4%
Hong Kong Forestry Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.5%
Asia Forestry Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7%
Hong Kong Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 11.6%
Hong Kong Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 11.2%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
SEHK:2689 Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 17 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in CNY Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
SEHK:2689 Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2021-06-30 67,453 6,830 5,715 13
2020-06-30 63,582 5,837 5,741 17
2019-06-30 58,223 6,458 4,941 17
SEHK:2689 Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2018-12-31 57,460 9,105 5,778
2018-09-30 55,121 8,753 6,813
2018-06-30 52,782 8,400 7,848
2018-03-31 49,230 6,230 7,323
2017-12-31 45,679 4,060 6,798
2017-09-30 42,417 3,787 5,591
2017-06-30 39,155 3,513 4,384
2017-03-31 37,031 5,196 3,554
2016-12-31 34,907 6,878 2,724
2016-09-30 33,500 6,669 1,923
2016-06-30 32,093 6,460 1,122
2016-03-31 31,405 6,252 1,083

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s earnings are expected to grow by 6.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s revenue is expected to grow by 7.4% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
SEHK:2689 Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 17 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

SEHK:2689 Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2021-06-30 1.29 1.74 0.92 7.00
2020-06-30 1.23 1.84 0.89 12.00
2019-06-30 1.06 1.22 0.87 12.00
SEHK:2689 Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) EPS *
2018-12-31 1.24
2018-09-30 1.46
2018-06-30 1.68
2018-03-31 1.57
2017-12-31 1.45
2017-09-30 1.20
2017-06-30 0.94
2017-03-31 0.76
2016-12-31 0.58
2016-09-30 0.41
2016-06-30 0.24
2016-03-31 0.23

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the Hong Kong market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the Asia market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s growth in the last year to its industry (Forestry).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the Asia Forestry industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

SEHK:2689 Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2018-12-31 57,460.32 5,778.12 2,987.45
2018-09-30 55,121.03 6,813.10 2,664.53
2018-06-30 52,781.75 7,848.08 2,341.60
2018-03-31 49,230.49 7,323.16 2,173.32
2017-12-31 45,679.23 6,798.25 2,005.03
2017-09-30 42,417.02 5,590.96 1,992.62
2017-06-30 39,154.81 4,383.67 1,980.22
2017-03-31 37,031.04 3,554.04 1,940.24
2016-12-31 34,907.27 2,724.40 1,900.27
2016-09-30 33,500.02 1,923.07 1,841.94
2016-06-30 32,092.77 1,121.74 1,783.62
2016-03-31 31,404.67 1,082.98 1,766.85
2015-12-31 30,716.56 1,044.21 1,750.09
2015-09-30 30,404.56 1,227.87 1,673.49
2015-06-30 30,092.55 1,411.52 1,596.89
2015-03-31 29,996.97 1,436.71 1,512.60
2014-12-31 29,901.40 1,461.90 1,428.30
2014-09-30 29,415.07 1,608.54 1,387.32
2014-06-30 28,928.74 1,755.17 1,346.34
2014-03-31 28,828.04 1,814.96 1,358.01
2013-12-31 28,727.33 1,874.76 1,369.69
2013-09-30 28,733.24 1,717.69 1,424.66
2013-06-30 28,739.14 1,560.62 1,479.64
2013-03-31 29,000.28 1,401.36 1,462.70
2012-12-31 29,261.42 1,242.09 1,445.76
2012-09-30 28,215.58 1,331.12 1,387.93
2012-06-30 27,169.74 1,420.15 1,330.10

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) used its assets more efficiently than the HK Forestry industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has significantly improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Forestry industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.8x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

SEHK:2689 Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2018-12-31 36,684.82 32,925.70 9,762.82
2018-09-30 36,684.82 32,925.70 9,762.82
2018-06-30 36,265.59 32,712.20 9,044.71
2018-03-31 36,265.59 32,712.20 9,044.71
2017-12-31 33,190.57 29,345.19 8,656.09
2017-09-30 33,190.57 29,345.19 8,656.09
2017-06-30 30,084.79 28,949.12 6,483.59
2017-03-31 30,084.79 28,949.12 6,483.59
2016-12-31 27,858.83 25,765.75 5,897.87
2016-09-30 27,858.83 25,765.75 5,897.87
2016-06-30 26,420.86 32,845.28 11,276.48
2016-03-31 26,420.86 32,845.28 11,276.48
2015-12-31 25,671.15 31,760.89 8,845.61
2015-09-30 25,671.15 31,760.89 8,845.61
2015-06-30 25,525.53 31,990.51 7,874.46
2015-03-31 25,525.53 31,990.51 7,874.46
2014-12-31 24,884.92 32,612.46 7,018.17
2014-09-30 24,884.92 32,612.46 7,018.17
2014-06-30 24,599.48 35,474.02 7,901.64
2014-03-31 24,599.48 35,474.02 7,901.64
2013-12-31 23,887.21 34,609.89 6,522.34
2013-09-30 23,887.21 34,609.89 6,522.34
2013-06-30 23,280.87 34,306.08 6,015.45
2013-03-31 23,280.87 34,306.08 6,015.45
2012-12-31 22,424.40 30,745.30 7,654.03
2012-09-30 22,424.40 30,745.30 7,654.03
2012-06-30 21,981.79 26,294.75 4,364.54
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s level of debt (89.8%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has been reduced over the past 5 years (144.9% vs 89.8% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (27.7%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 10.5x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
7.51%
Current annual income from Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) dividends. Estimated to be 5.47% next year.
If you bought HK$2,000 of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) shares you are expected to receive HK$150 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in Hong Kong (1.94%).
  • Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s dividend is above the markets top 25% of dividend payers in Hong Kong (5.34%).
Upcoming dividend payment

Purchase Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) before the 'Buy Limit' to receive their next dividend payment.

Dividends are usually paid every 3 or 6 months, you can time your share purchase to take advantage of upcoming dividend payments.
Dividend payment calendar
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
SEHK:2689 Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 17 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
Asia Forestry Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 24 Stocks 5.3%
Hong Kong Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 965 Stocks 3.4%
Hong Kong Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 1.1%
Hong Kong Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.9%
Hong Kong Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 5.3%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

SEHK:2689 Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in CN¥) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2021-06-30 0.39 9.00
2020-06-30 0.39 13.00
2019-06-30 0.32 13.00
SEHK:2689 Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in CN¥) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2018-10-23 0.500 7.408
2018-09-18 0.500 6.849
2018-02-26 0.350 3.897
2017-10-26 0.300 2.818
2017-09-21 0.300 2.248
2016-09-21 0.100 1.311
2015-10-26 0.070 1.551
2015-09-23 0.070 1.836
2014-10-27 0.080 1.714
2014-09-24 0.080 1.740
2013-10-29 0.100 2.112
2013-09-26 0.100 2.262
2012-10-29 0.070 1.462
2011-09-20 0.100 2.556
2011-02-23 0.120 2.076
2010-09-27 0.120 1.179
2010-03-30 0.040 0.390
2009-09-14 0.035 0.338
2009-04-20 0.000 0.000

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Dividends per share have been volatile in the past 10 years (annual drop of over 20%).
  • Dividends per share have increased over the past 10 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are well covered by earnings (2.5x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be well covered by earnings (3.3x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 1.1%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Ming Liu
COMPENSATION CN¥7,875,000
AGE 56
TENURE AS CEO 13.2 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Ming Chung Liu is a Co-Founder of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Ltd. and has been its Chief Executive Officer since February 6, 2006. Mr. Liu is responsible for the overall corporate management and planning, the development of new manufacturing technologies, the procurement of production equipment as well as human resources management of Nine Dragons. Mr. Liu co-founded America Chung Nam, Inc. in 1990. He has over 15 years of experience in international trade and over 7 years of experience in corporate management. Mr. Liu has been Deputy Chairman of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Ltd. since February 6, 2006. Mr. Liu serves as Executive Director of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Ltd. since September 27, 2005. Mr. Liu is an honorary citizen of the City of Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China. Mr. Liu is graduated with Bachelor's Degree in Dental Surgery from the University of Santo Amaro in 1983.

CEO Compensation
  • Ming's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
  • Ming's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Hong Kong.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) management team in years:

13.2
Average Tenure
49
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Yan Cheung

TITLE
Co-Founder & Chairlady
COMPENSATION
CN¥8M
AGE
61

Ming Liu

TITLE
Co-Founder
COMPENSATION
CN¥8M
AGE
56
TENURE
13.2 yrs

Cheng Zhang

TITLE
Co-Founder
COMPENSATION
CN¥8M
AGE
50
TENURE
13.2 yrs

Liu Ken

TITLE
Deputy Chairman
COMPENSATION
CN¥2M
AGE
26

Yuanfu Zhang

TITLE
Group CFO & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥5M
AGE
55

Chun Lau

TITLE
Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥4M
AGE
37

Lianpeng Zhang

TITLE
Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥812K
AGE
26
TENURE
0.7 yrs

Du Zhang

TITLE
Group General Manager of the Sales Department
AGE
48

Xin Chu

TITLE
Deputy Chief Financial Officer of Internal Control
AGE
54
TENURE
18.3 yrs

Ricky Chu

TITLE
Group Deputy Chief Financial Officer
AGE
47
TENURE
10.5 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) board of directors in years:

8.3
Average Tenure
55.5
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Yan Cheung

TITLE
Co-Founder & Chairlady
COMPENSATION
CN¥8M
AGE
61
TENURE
13.2 yrs

Ming Liu

TITLE
Co-Founder
COMPENSATION
CN¥8M
AGE
56
TENURE
13.2 yrs

Cheng Zhang

TITLE
Co-Founder
COMPENSATION
CN¥8M
AGE
50
TENURE
0.8 yrs

Liu Ken

TITLE
Deputy Chairman
COMPENSATION
CN¥2M
AGE
26
TENURE
0.8 yrs

Yuanfu Zhang

TITLE
Group CFO & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥5M
AGE
55
TENURE
10.5 yrs

Chun Lau

TITLE
Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥4M
AGE
37
TENURE
13.2 yrs

Lianpeng Zhang

TITLE
Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥812K
AGE
26
TENURE
1.8 yrs

Maria Tam

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥566K
AGE
73
TENURE
13.2 yrs

Leung Sing Ng

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥566K
AGE
69
TENURE
6.1 yrs

Yiu Kin Lam

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥566K
AGE
63
TENURE
3.1 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price (HK$) Value (HK$)
X
Management checks
We assess Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)'s management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Does The Data Make Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689) An Attractive Investment?

Building up an investment case requires looking at a stock holistically. … Today I've chosen to put the spotlight on Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689) due to its excellent fundamentals in more than one area.

Simply Wall St -

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) (HKG:2689) Shareholders Have Enjoyed A 39% Share Price Gain

For example, the Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689) share price is up 39% in the last 5 years, clearly besting than the market return of around 17% (ignoring dividends). … During five years of share price growth, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 25% per year. … It is of course excellent to see how Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders

Simply Wall St -

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689): Should The Recent Earnings Drop Worry You?

Measuring Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited's (HKG:2689) track record of past performance is a valuable exercise for investors. … See our latest analysis for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)? … Furthermore, this one-year growth rate has been lower than its average earnings growth rate over the past 5 years of 40%, indicating the rate at which 2689 is growing has slowed down

Simply Wall St -

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689) Earns A Nice Return On Capital Employed

In particular, we'll consider its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), as that can give us insight into how profitably the company is able to employ capital in its business. … Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE). … ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business.

Simply Wall St -

Why Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689) Could Be Worth Watching

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689), which is in the forestry business, and is based in Hong Kong,. … With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price? … Let’s examine Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

Simply Wall St -

What does Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited's (HKG:2689) Balance Sheet Tell Us About Its Future?

Small-cap and large-cap companies receive a lot of attention from investors, but mid-cap stocks like Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689), with a market cap of HK$38b, are often out of the spotlight. … Note that this information is centred entirely on financial health and is a top-level understanding, so I encourage you to look further. … Check out our latest analysis for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Excited About Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited's (HKG:2689) 22% Return On Equity?

With that in mind, this article will work through how we can use Return On Equity (ROE) to better understand a business. … That means that for every HK$1 worth of shareholders' equity, it generated HK$0.22 in profit. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity

Simply Wall St -

Do Institutions Own Shares In Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689)?

If you want to know who really controls Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689), then you'll have to look at the makeup of its share registry. … Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) is a pretty big company. … View our latest analysis for Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)

Simply Wall St -

Why Fundamental Investors Might Love Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689)

As an investor, I look for investments which does not compromise one fundamental factor for another. … By this I mean, I look at stocks holistically, from their financial health to their future outlook. … In the case of Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689), it

Simply Wall St -

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (HKG:2689) Is Employing Capital Very Effectively

Specifically, we're going to calculate its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), in the hopes of getting some insight into the business. … What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)? … The formula for calculating the return on capital employed is:

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging paper, recycled printing and writing paper, and specialty paper products in the People’s Republic of China. The company offers linerboard products, including Kraft, test, white top, and coated linerboards; and high performance corrugating medium and coated duplex boards. It also provides recycled printing and writing paper, such as uncoated wood-free paper and office paper; capacitor tissue paper; low and high voltage, ultra-high-voltage transformer coil winding, and heat-resistant insulating paper; and Kraft pulp. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is a subsidiary of Best Result Holdings Limited.

Details
Name: Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited
2689
Exchange: SEHK
Founded: 1995
HK$36,552,400,117
4,692,220,811
Website: http://www.ndpaper.com
Address: Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited
One Harbour Square,
22nd Floor,
Kwun Tong,
Kowloon, Hong Kong
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
SEHK 2689 Ordinary Shares The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Ltd. HK HKD 03. Mar 2006
OTCPK NDGP.F Ordinary Shares Pink Sheets LLC US USD 03. Mar 2006
DB N3Y Ordinary Shares Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 03. Mar 2006
SHSC 2689 Ordinary Shares Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited - Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect HK HKD 03. Mar 2006
SZSC 2689 Ordinary Shares The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect HK HKD 03. Mar 2006
OTCPK NDGP.Y UNSPONSORED ADR Pink Sheets LLC US USD 13. Oct 2008
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
17,000
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) employees.
Industry
Paper Products
Materials
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/04/19 12:42
End of day share price update: 2019/04/18 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/04/18
Last earnings filing: 2019/03/20
Last earnings reported: 2018/12/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/06/30


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.