Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited

SEHK:2689 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$15.1b

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Valuation

Is 2689 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2689 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2689 (HK$3.26) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$1.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2689 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2689?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

2689 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA17x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 2689's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 2689 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
2314 Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing
0.4x4.4%HK$10.1b
1252 China Tianrui Group Cement
1.4xn/aHK$15.2b
2009 BBMG
0.06x7.8%HK$18.3b
323 Maanshan Iron & Steel
0.08x-2.3%HK$17.6b
2689 Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)
0.3x12.3%HK$15.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 2689 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2689's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Forestry Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a35.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a35.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 2689 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the Asian Forestry industry average (0.9x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2689's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2689 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 2689 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2689 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$3.26
HK$4.36
+33.8%
13.7%HK$5.51HK$3.56n/a13
Mar ’25HK$3.49
HK$4.34
+24.5%
14.2%HK$5.50HK$3.50n/a13
Feb ’25HK$3.08
HK$4.28
+39.0%
12.1%HK$5.06HK$3.50n/a12
Jan ’25HK$3.85
HK$4.45
+15.5%
16.8%HK$6.29HK$3.51n/a11
Dec ’24HK$3.81
HK$4.45
+16.7%
16.8%HK$6.29HK$3.51n/a11
Nov ’24HK$4.46
HK$4.44
-0.6%
16.7%HK$6.28HK$3.50n/a11
Oct ’24HK$4.40
HK$4.52
+2.7%
15.2%HK$6.30HK$3.91n/a11
Sep ’24HK$4.35
HK$5.60
+28.7%
21.1%HK$7.97HK$3.96n/a12
Aug ’24HK$4.99
HK$6.09
+22.0%
26.8%HK$9.48HK$4.00n/a12
Jul ’24HK$4.83
HK$6.38
+32.0%
22.5%HK$9.47HK$4.37n/a12
Jun ’24HK$4.47
HK$6.79
+51.8%
25.1%HK$10.01HK$4.47n/a13
May ’24HK$5.43
HK$6.87
+26.5%
24.4%HK$10.09HK$4.51n/a13
Apr ’24HK$5.88
HK$6.89
+17.2%
23.6%HK$10.01HK$4.47n/a13
Mar ’24HK$6.55
HK$6.89
+5.2%
23.6%HK$10.01HK$4.47HK$3.4913
Feb ’24HK$7.14
HK$7.03
-1.5%
25.6%HK$11.50HK$4.40HK$3.0812
Jan ’24HK$7.12
HK$6.67
-6.3%
31.0%HK$11.80HK$4.47HK$3.8511
Dec ’23HK$6.21
HK$6.54
+5.4%
31.2%HK$11.54HK$4.36HK$3.8111
Nov ’23HK$4.73
HK$6.40
+35.4%
31.5%HK$11.56HK$4.37HK$4.4611
Oct ’23HK$4.88
HK$6.50
+33.3%
30.0%HK$11.63HK$4.40HK$4.4012
Sep ’23HK$6.07
HK$8.31
+36.9%
23.8%HK$13.12HK$5.00HK$4.3515
Aug ’23HK$6.40
HK$8.73
+36.4%
24.8%HK$13.38HK$5.37HK$4.9915
Jul ’23HK$6.64
HK$9.00
+35.6%
21.9%HK$13.49HK$6.69HK$4.8315
Jun ’23HK$7.12
HK$9.09
+27.6%
20.3%HK$12.72HK$6.75HK$4.4716
May ’23HK$6.97
HK$9.93
+42.5%
22.3%HK$15.47HK$7.35HK$5.4317
Apr ’23HK$6.96
HK$10.36
+48.9%
21.4%HK$15.78HK$7.50HK$5.8818
Mar ’23HK$7.75
HK$10.63
+37.2%
19.8%HK$15.85HK$7.53HK$6.5518

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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