The past five years for People's Insurance Company (Group) of China (HKG:1339) investors has not been profitable

September 12, 2022
  •  Updated
November 25, 2022
SEHK:1339
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The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited (HKG:1339) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 32% over a half decade.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

However if you'd rather see where the opportunities and risks are within 1339's industry, you can check out our analysis on the HK Insurance industry.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, People's Insurance Company (Group) of China actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 7.0% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 5.9% a year in the five year period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:1339 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 12th 2022

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on People's Insurance Company (Group) of China

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between People's Insurance Company (Group) of China's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that People's Insurance Company (Group) of China's TSR, which was a 14% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that People's Insurance Company (Group) of China has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 3.0% in the last twelve months. That certainly beats the loss of about 3% per year over the last half decade. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. Shareholders might want to examine this detailed historical graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Of course People's Insurance Company (Group) of China may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether People's Insurance Company (Group) of China is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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