Has AIA Group Limited's (HKG:1299) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

Most readers would already be aware that AIA Group's (HKG:1299) stock increased significantly by 30% over the past three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Particularly, we will be paying attention to AIA Group's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for AIA Group is:

17% = US$6.9b ÷ US$41b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every HK$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of HK$0.17.

View our latest analysis for AIA Group

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

AIA Group's Earnings Growth And 17% ROE

To start with, AIA Group's ROE looks acceptable. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 8.7% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. As you might expect, the 4.9% net income decline reported by AIA Group is a bit of a surprise. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

As a next step, we compared AIA Group's performance with the industry and found thatAIA Group's performance is depressing even when compared with the industry, which has shrunk its earnings at a rate of 0.4% in the same period, which is a slower than the company.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for 1299? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is AIA Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

AIA Group's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 51% (or a retention ratio of 49%). With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent.

Additionally, AIA Group has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 37% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the lower expected payout ratio.

Summary

In total, it does look like AIA Group has some positive aspects to its business. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return. Investors could have benefitted from the high ROE, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings. As discussed earlier, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.