AIA Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

AIA Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.6% and 3.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 9.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.3% in 3 years.

Key information

6.6%

Earnings growth rate

9.1%

EPS growth rate

Insurance earnings growth	-2.4%
Revenue growth rate	3.2%
Future return on equity	16.3%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	16 Apr 2025

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

AIA Group (HKG:1299) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $1.31

Apr 08

AIA Group's (HKG:1299) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year

Mar 17

Expansion Into Mainland China Will Increase Customer Base And Strengthen Long-Term Prospects

Mar 16 Strategic expansion and partnerships in China and Hong Kong diversify channels and enhance high-margin revenue growth.

Earnings Tell The Story For AIA Group Limited (HKG:1299)

Jan 16

Market Participants Recognise AIA Group Limited's (HKG:1299) Earnings Pushing Shares 26% Higher

Sep 30

AIA Group (HKG:1299) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To $1.19

May 04

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

SEHK:1299 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2027	24,609	8,463	N/A	15,803	6
12/31/2026	22,436	7,636	N/A	18,772	10
12/31/2025	20,884	7,056	N/A	18,551	7
12/31/2024	22,467	6,836	3,026	3,263	N/A
9/30/2024	21,730	5,832	6,080	6,359	N/A
6/30/2024	20,992	4,828	9,133	9,455	N/A
3/31/2024	20,375	4,296	9,863	10,187	N/A
12/31/2023	19,757	3,764	10,593	10,919	N/A
9/30/2023	19,454	3,901	9,501	9,717	N/A
6/30/2023	19,151	4,038	8,409	8,514	N/A
3/31/2023	18,458	3,685	8,945	9,191	N/A
12/31/2022	17,764	3,331	9,481	9,867	N/A
9/30/2022	24,079	4,528	7,259	7,910	N/A
6/30/2022	30,393	5,725	5,037	5,953	N/A
3/31/2022	38,375	6,576	4,153	4,931	N/A
12/31/2021	46,357	7,427	3,269	3,909	N/A
9/30/2021	50,633	7,127	2,581	3,047	N/A
6/30/2021	54,909	6,827	1,892	2,185	N/A
3/31/2021	52,880	6,303	1,998	2,271	N/A
12/31/2020	50,851	5,779	2,103	2,357	N/A
9/30/2020	46,970	5,298	3,647	3,863	N/A
6/30/2020	43,089	4,817	5,191	5,368	N/A
3/31/2020	45,517	5,398	4,180	4,353	N/A
12/31/2019	47,945	5,979	3,168	3,337	N/A
6/30/2019	38,528	4,051	2,185	2,294	N/A
12/31/2018	33,025	2,920	1,780	1,865	N/A
11/30/2017	38,761	6,120	N/A	1,451	N/A
8/31/2017	36,151	5,572	N/A	1,231	N/A
5/31/2017	33,540	5,024	N/A	1,011	N/A
2/28/2017	30,669	4,594	N/A	1,188	N/A
11/30/2016	27,797	4,164	N/A	1,364	N/A
8/31/2016	24,643	3,395	N/A	1,501	N/A
5/31/2016	21,489	2,626	N/A	1,638	N/A
2/29/2016	21,988	2,696	N/A	1,438	N/A
11/30/2015	22,486	2,765	N/A	1,237	N/A
8/31/2015	24,941	3,437	N/A	956	N/A
5/31/2015	27,395	4,108	N/A	675	N/A
2/28/2015	26,282	3,779	N/A	710	N/A
11/30/2014	25,169	3,450	N/A	744	N/A
8/31/2014	23,213	2,943	N/A	929	N/A
5/31/2014	21,257	2,435	N/A	1,114	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 1299's forecast earnings growth (6.6% per year) is above the savings rate (2.4%).

Earnings vs Market: 1299's earnings (6.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (10.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 1299's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 1299's revenue (3.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (8.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 1299's revenue (3.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 1299's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/04/28 05:01
End of Day Share Price	2025/04/28 00:00
Earnings	2024/12/31
Annual Earnings	2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

AIA Group Limited is covered by 41 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Mark William Kellock	Barclays
Dominic Chan	BNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Michael Li	BofA Global Research

AIA Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 17%

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16%, revenue upgraded

Consensus forecasts updated

Consensus forecasts updated

Recent updates

AIA Group Limited to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 30, 2025

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17%

AIA Group (HKG:1299) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $1.31

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 17%

AIA Group's (HKG:1299) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year

Final dividend of HK$1.31 announced

Expansion Into Mainland China Will Increase Customer Base And Strengthen Long-Term Prospects

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

AIA Group Limited (SEHK:1299) announces an Equity Buyback for $1,600 million worth of its shares.

AIA Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 23, 2025

AIA Group Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Mar 14, 2025

Earnings Tell The Story For AIA Group Limited (HKG:1299)

AIA Group Limited to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 31, 2024

Market Participants Recognise AIA Group Limited's (HKG:1299) Earnings Pushing Shares 26% Higher

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17%

AIA Group's (HKG:1299) Dividend Will Be $0.445

First half dividend of HK$0.45 announced

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.29 (vs US$0.19 in 1H 2023)

AIA Group Limited Announces Interim Dividend for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2024, Payable on 25 September 2024

AIA Group Limited's (HKG:1299) Share Price Matching Investor Opinion

AIA Group Limited to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 22, 2024

AIA Group Limited Announces Committee Changes, Effective 8 July 2024

AIA Group's (HKG:1299) Dividend Will Be Increased To $1.19

AIA Group Limited Declares Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2023

Upcoming dividend of HK$1.19 per share

AIA Group (HKG:1299) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To $1.19

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15%

AIA Group Limited to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 29, 2024

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16%, revenue upgraded

Final dividend of HK$1.19 announced

AIA Group Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 24, 2024

Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

AIA Group Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 14, 2024

New minor risk - Earnings quality

Now 20% undervalued

AIA Group Limited to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 03, 2023

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought HK$3.9m worth of stock

AIA Group Limited Announces Appointment of Nor Shamsiah Binti Mohd Yunus as Independent Non-Executive Director and Member of Nomination Committee Effective September 21, 2023

Upcoming dividend of HK$0.42 per share at 2.2% yield

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.19 (vs US$0.13 in 1H 2022)

AIA Group Limited Announces an Interim Dividend for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2023, Payable on 26 September 2023

AIA Group Limited to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Aug 24, 2023

Insufficient new directors

AAIA a Group Limited Announces Board Changes

AIA Group Limited Declares Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2022

Upcoming dividend of HK$1.13 per share at 1.9% yield

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

AIA Hong Kong Announces the Launch of AIA Wealth Elite 2 - Sapphire

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Consensus forecasts updated

AIA Group Limited (SEHK:1299) agreed to acquire MediCard Philippines, Inc.

AIA Group Limited (SEHK:1299) agreed to acquire MediCard Philippines, Inc.

Upcoming dividend of HK$0.40 per share

Consensus forecasts updated

AIA Group Limited Declares Interim Dividend for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2022

First half 2022 earnings released: US$0.05 loss per share (vs US$0.27 profit in 1H 2021)

AIA Group Limited Declares Interim Dividend

AIA Group Limited Appoints Sun Jie as Member of the Audit Committee and the Remuneration Committee, Effective 1 June 2022

AIA Group Limited Declares Final Dividend for the Year Ended December 31, 2022

Upcoming dividend of HK$1.08 per share

AIA Group Limited Proposes to Declare Final Dividend of 108 Hong Kong Cents Per Share for the Year Ended December 31, 2022

AIA Group Limited to Report Q1, 2022 Results on Apr 29, 2022

AIA Group Limited to Report First Half, 2022 Results on Aug 25, 2022

Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations

AIA Group Limited (SEHK:1299) entered into the Share Sale Agreement to acquire Blue Cross (Asia-Pacific) Insurance Limited from The Bank of East Asia, Limited (SEHK:23) for HKD 2106 million.

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

AIA Group Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2021 Results on Mar 11, 2022

Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought HK$6.3m worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of HK$0.38 per share