AIA Group Valuation

Is 1299 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1299 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1299 (HK$55.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$89.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1299 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1299?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

1299 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA14.5x
PEG Ratio1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1299's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1299 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.3x
2628 China Life Insurance
14.9x22.2%HK$765.7b
966 China Taiping Insurance Holdings
5.8x9.7%HK$31.2b
6963 Sunshine Insurance Group
7.4x17.8%HK$27.9b
376 Yunfeng Financial Group
9xn/aHK$3.7b
1299 AIA Group
21x17.1%HK$617.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1299 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21x) compared to the peer average (9.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1299's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Insurance Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a17.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a17.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1299 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21x) compared to the Asian Insurance industry average (11.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1299's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1299 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21x
Fair PE Ratio9.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1299 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1299 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$55.50
HK$94.37
+70.0%
13.9%HK$144.86HK$73.84n/a20
Jun ’25HK$60.45
HK$94.67
+56.6%
13.8%HK$144.81HK$73.81n/a20
May ’25HK$57.80
HK$94.44
+63.4%
14.0%HK$145.12HK$73.97n/a20
Apr ’25HK$52.55
HK$96.82
+84.2%
13.1%HK$145.12HK$80.05n/a20
Mar ’25HK$62.55
HK$98.55
+57.6%
14.3%HK$145.13HK$80.03n/a20
Feb ’25HK$61.15
HK$99.74
+63.1%
13.6%HK$145.04HK$80.00n/a20
Jan ’25HK$68.05
HK$100.00
+47.0%
12.7%HK$145.06HK$86.78n/a21
Dec ’24HK$66.85
HK$100.68
+50.6%
12.9%HK$144.58HK$86.65n/a20
Nov ’24HK$67.40
HK$99.84
+48.1%
12.7%HK$144.87HK$86.94n/a19
Oct ’24HK$63.85
HK$103.48
+62.1%
12.1%HK$144.60HK$86.76n/a20
Sep ’24HK$71.20
HK$103.67
+45.6%
11.9%HK$145.06HK$86.09n/a21
Aug ’24HK$77.15
HK$104.72
+35.7%
10.7%HK$144.65HK$89.99n/a23
Jul ’24HK$79.10
HK$105.29
+33.1%
10.6%HK$145.07HK$89.86n/a23
Jun ’24HK$75.20
HK$105.67
+40.5%
10.5%HK$144.67HK$89.92HK$60.4523
May ’24HK$84.95
HK$105.87
+24.6%
10.5%HK$145.01HK$90.00HK$57.8023
Apr ’24HK$82.65
HK$106.26
+28.6%
10.9%HK$145.02HK$89.99HK$52.5523
Mar ’24HK$85.50
HK$105.68
+23.6%
11.9%HK$145.28HK$77.99HK$62.5525
Feb ’24HK$86.95
HK$104.90
+20.6%
13.2%HK$145.01HK$69.23HK$61.1525
Jan ’24HK$86.80
HK$100.36
+15.6%
13.9%HK$141.58HK$68.91HK$68.0524
Dec ’23HK$80.35
HK$97.87
+21.8%
15.0%HK$141.87HK$68.66HK$66.8524
Nov ’23HK$63.40
HK$98.37
+55.2%
15.9%HK$142.00HK$69.00HK$67.4023
Oct ’23HK$65.45
HK$101.93
+55.7%
13.1%HK$142.07HK$75.01HK$63.8526
Sep ’23HK$75.25
HK$102.91
+36.8%
13.5%HK$142.04HK$74.99HK$71.2026
Aug ’23HK$77.20
HK$104.03
+34.8%
12.9%HK$142.01HK$78.02HK$77.1526
Jul ’23HK$85.05
HK$105.21
+23.7%
13.4%HK$142.14HK$77.99HK$79.1026
Jun ’23HK$80.80
HK$105.11
+30.1%
13.1%HK$142.10HK$77.98HK$75.2027

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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