Subdued Growth No Barrier To China Golden Classic Group Limited (HKG:8281) With Shares Advancing 26%

China Golden Classic Group Limited (HKG:8281) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 7.0% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, China Golden Classic Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.2x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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China Golden Classic Group certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for China Golden Classic Group

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on China Golden Classic Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like China Golden Classic Group's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 227%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 50% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 20% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that China Golden Classic Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

China Golden Classic Group's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of China Golden Classic Group revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for China Golden Classic Group (2 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Golden Classic Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.