Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited Recorded A 7.9% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited (HKG:874) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to HK$18.68 in the past week. Revenues came in 7.9% below expectations, at CN¥18b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of CN¥2.50 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings

Following the latest results, Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥82.6b in 2025. This would be a decent 8.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.0% to CN¥2.28. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥82.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.38 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at HK$21.42, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$25.96 and the most bearish at HK$16.88 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.7% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$21.42, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.