Shanghai Pioneer Holding's (HKG:1345) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Only Soft Earnings

Shanghai Pioneer Holding Ltd's (HKG:1345) stock showed strength, with investors undeterred by its weak earnings report. While shareholders may be willing to overlook soft profit numbers, we believe that they should also be taking into account some other factors which may be cause for concern.

See our latest analysis for Shanghai Pioneer Holding

A Closer Look At Shanghai Pioneer Holding's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Shanghai Pioneer Holding has an accrual ratio of 0.36 for the year to December 2023. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥163m despite its profit of CN¥145.7m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was CN¥19m a year ago though, so Shanghai Pioneer Holding has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Shanghai Pioneer Holding.

Our Take On Shanghai Pioneer Holding's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think Shanghai Pioneer Holding's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that Shanghai Pioneer Holding's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for Shanghai Pioneer Holding (1 is significant!) and we strongly recommend you look at them before investing.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Shanghai Pioneer Holding's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.