Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited's (HKG:168) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited's (HKG:168) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.2x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Tsingtao Brewery could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Tsingtao Brewery

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How Is Tsingtao Brewery's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Tsingtao Brewery's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. Although pleasingly EPS has lifted 52% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 6.3% per year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 12% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's alarming that Tsingtao Brewery's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Tsingtao Brewery's P/E

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Tsingtao Brewery currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Tsingtao Brewery (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable).

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Tsingtao Brewery. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.