The PetroChina Company Limited (HKG:857) Yearly Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Investors in PetroChina Company Limited (HKG:857) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.9% to close at HK$6.42 following the release of its full-year results. PetroChina reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of CN¥2.9t and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.90, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, PetroChina's 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be CN¥2.91t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 2.4% to CN¥0.88 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥2.98t and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.89 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

Check out our latest analysis for PetroChina

The average price target was steady at HK$7.73even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on PetroChina, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$9.89 and the most bearish at HK$3.99 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.8% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.0% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.8% per year.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Unhappily, they also trimmed their revenue estimates, although the company is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry next year. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at HK$7.73, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple PetroChina analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for PetroChina (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.