China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd.'s (HKG:1606) 27% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Despite an already strong run, China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. (HKG:1606) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27% in the last thirty days. The annual gain comes to 113% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about China Development Bank Financial Leasing's P/E ratio of 8x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Hong Kong is also close to 9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

For example, consider that China Development Bank Financial Leasing's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for China Development Bank Financial Leasing

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How Is China Development Bank Financial Leasing's Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, China Development Bank Financial Leasing would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 17%. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 19% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 23% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's curious that China Development Bank Financial Leasing's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Key Takeaway

China Development Bank Financial Leasing's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of China Development Bank Financial Leasing revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for China Development Bank Financial Leasing (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.