Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited (HKG:9922) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.7% to HK$2.80 in the past week. Revenues were CN¥6.1b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CN¥0.04, an impressive 24% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jiumaojiu International Holdings from 19 analysts is for revenues of CN¥6.38b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 259% to CN¥0.14. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥6.86b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.19 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.

See our latest analysis for Jiumaojiu International Holdings

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the HK$3.07 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jiumaojiu International Holdings at HK$6.99 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$2.12. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Jiumaojiu International Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Jiumaojiu International Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jiumaojiu International Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Jiumaojiu International Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Jiumaojiu International Holdings has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.