China Education Group Holdings Limited (HKG:839) Soars 26% But It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward

China Education Group Holdings Limited (HKG:839) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 18% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, there still wouldn't be many who think China Education Group Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.5x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Hong Kong is similar at about 9x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

China Education Group Holdings hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn around. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

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Is There Some Growth For China Education Group Holdings?

China Education Group Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 15% decrease to the company's bottom line. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 18% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 22% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 12% per year growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it interesting that China Education Group Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently some shareholders are skeptical of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.

The Final Word

China Education Group Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of China Education Group Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with China Education Group Holdings, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.